Thread by @CSISKoreaChair

#CapitalCable with experts Sydney Seiler, @mwlippert, @SueMiTerry & @VictorDCha begins NOW!

Tune in for a fascinating discussion on North Korea's trajectory ahead of the new @POTUS administration, and see thread below for live coverage of the event.⬇️

Host @mwlippert welcomes our guests to the eighteenth #CapitalCable.

This week: tour de force of all things North Korea, with the National Intelligence Officer for DPRK, Mr. Sydney Seiler.

Our regular panelists, @SueMiTerry and @CSIS @VictorDCha are ready to ring in the new year with the first #CapitalCable of 2021 as well.

First Topic: Where are things in NK today?

Having watched NK for nearly 40 years now, Mr. Seiler sees the trend as strategic continuity marked by tactical surprise.

Mr. Seiler reveals that you must start looking at NK with 1988: the Seoul Olympics.

With the attendance of all the Eastern bloc countries despite Pyongyang's objections, South Korea emerged "victorious" as the success of the Korean peninsula, turning NK upside down.

Following this, we saw the "atrophy" of "regular" military. North Korea's survival would require capabilities beyond the norm to hold the peninsula "hostage." Now, it is the pursuit of the nuclear program.

For the past 30 years, every engagement in diplomacy has been designed to further the nuclear program, not to find a way out of the nuclear program and sustained improvement of relations with either the United States or the Republic of Korea.

"There was nothing particularly surprising about the Eight Party Congress outcome," Mr. Seiler says.

This portrayal of a hostile external environment justifying the pursuit of national defense capabilities come at the great expense of the economy and Korean people.

What we see in the congress readout is a strategic snapshot of what we've seen all along.

We may not know when the next provocation is, or when Kim's next diplomatic outwards reach might be, but we can see in it that the fundamentals of North Korea aren't really changing.

Are there enough drivers that might bring about a change in thinking either in North Korea's negotiating posture or economy?

North Korea has had a longer term objective of normalizing its nuclear status, Mr. Seiler says.

North Korea desires an environment where it can interact with the international community in a way where the nuclearization hammers aren't being brought down on them all the time- so they're looking at examples such as China.

Through the 2018 and 2019 summits, Kim secured an awareness in Washington that North Korea should be dealt with as as an equal, Seiler states.

There is a paradoxical phenomenon where North Korea when it's hurting is less likely to engage because it feels vulnerable. Overtime, we've never seen greater openness to dialogue during periods of hardship nor an unwillingness to engage when when they're doing well, he states.

NK is also watching the developments in the US-PRC relationship.

Over the past few years and you can see this reflected in some of their public statements, targeting the PRC in terms of China's sympathy to North Korea's position as a "US-harassed" NK.

The challenge is this:

As the nuclear program grows over time, North Korea's incentive to come to diplomacy that is centered around denuclearization diminishes, Mr. Sydney Seiler states at #CapitalCable.

Where do we go from here?

@VictorDCha has three key takeaways.

1) We talk about Korea being opaque, but if you study its strategic goals, they are very apparent, with consistency and transparency.

2) On US-China, SK and NK reactions are diametrically opposed. When relations are bad as they are now, South Korea feels stuck, whereas the North views it as a good thing, leaving space to tighten things up with China, @VictorDCha states.

3) Diplomacy is a delaying game in this scenario, @VictorDCha says. Arguably, this is what happened under @POTUS45. NK is trying to build up as many capabilities as they can so that denuclearization is no longer a viable option.

In response, Mr. Seiler says @VictorDCha's take is the "best-case scenario."

The confidence that "as bad as it gets, they'll never use them," should be challenged, Seiler suggests.

Adding her insights, @SueMiTerry agrees with Mr. Seiler's appraisal of North Korea's longtime strategic paradigm.

In terms of tactics, Dr. Terry sees them as predictable as well; Kim will have to decide very soon about reverting to a testing campaign.

Maximum pressure minus @POTUS45's initial rhetoric actually went somewhere- but that ship sailed with the initiation of summitry.

North Korea is calling the US's bluff over use of force as not credible. Even the threat of sanctions is not as strong, @SueMiTerry.

For the @POTUS administration, they have a very difficult task right now, @SueMiTerry .

We have less leverage today in terms of policy options then even several years ago. The new admin must make this really difficult decision of whether they will go for an interim deal.

North Korea does have to show resiliency, @SueMiTerry adds. "When they are weak, they have to show they are strong."

But, when you see what's coming out of the congress, there were no signs of reforms- which means there are little signs that the economic program will improve.

For the @POTUS administration, this is like trying to solve a Rubix cube that is missing a piece, @VictorDCha says.

Now the dilemma @POTUS has is that to try to stop this "bleeding" requires some sort of engagement, which is our best bet at trying to stop or freeze the program, @VictorCha adds.

On inter-Korean relations, Mr. Seiler sees the biggest challenge for the ROK, US, and even Japan is that the linkage of denuclearization to North-South talks is not a policy decision, but a logical connection between the two.

Some voices in the ROK have shed doubt over working groups and the US's commitment to working with North Korea- viewing US involvement in denuclearization as a "magical" solution.

There cannot be any sustained improvement in inter-Korean relations until NK gets serious about denuclearization, Seiler analyzes.

Mr. Sydney Seiler sees that a "re-multilateralization" of denuclearization would allow us to have greater trust and coordination going forward, he ends.

This would take pressure off the US-ROK alliance as well. @mwlippert adds.

There is not going to be a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations until there is a breakthrough between the United States and North Korea, @SueMiTerry states.

Looking forward, events like the US-ROK Joint Exercises will be issues to look at.

The main concern, @SueMiTerry says, is that the @moonriver365 administration only has one year left.

Dr. Terry hopes that Seoul and Washington stay together on the same page as Pyongyang continues to hammer onto the Seoul.

The @TheBlueHouseENG may keep pushing for summits with North Korea @POTUS.

There is a menu of options that could be on the table for this future, @mwlippert @SueMiTerry conclude.

On the SK piece, @VictorDCha says it is never good for the alliance when the unification ministry is talking about joint exercises or working groups.

However, @moonriver365 has pulled creative feats before- we can always count on the admins diplomatic, creative thinking.

On the NK domestic situation, Mr. Seiler that there is no stability risk that would result from the current situation. At the moment, it doesn't look like there's a crisis that would have serious policy implications, or, conversely, create opportunities.

In concluding thoughts, any delusion of South Korea that the North Korean nuclear program is just a US-DPRK issue should be disappeared, Mr. Seiler adds.

Thank you for tuning in to this episode of #CapitalCable with special guest Mr. Sydney Seiler, @mwlippert, @VictorDCha, and @SueMiTerry.

To rewatch the gripping discussion, click below!