update: grassley said that he'll vote yea, which leads me to believe that yellen will probably get 8+ r votes. still relatively narrow, but nothing we won't see with neera tanden
so that's 63 definite yeses. we can probably extrapolate further (leadership positions, relative conservatism, etc) to get into the 80s, but you really can't count out paul/lee/cruz/tennessee
only real question is if she'll break 90 with johnson/marshall/risch/inhofe
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there's a lot of punditry about the relative strength of progs/mods in swing districts floating around the tl, so here's some data i collated to help center the discussion around data instead of preexisting ideology. the greater the ideology score, the more conservative (1/2)
this sample is of dem incumbents in districts r+5 to d+5, with a three extra inclusions of incumbents targeted not in that range (mn-7, me-2, ok-5)
more analysis of adjusted relative performance to come tomorrow. questions welcome
it's unfortunate to see that the jones act enjoys substantial support in congress; sen. cantwell confirmed buttgieg's support for it this morning; pete defazio supports it too
perhaps once puerto rico is enfranchised, they can unite with alaska and hawaii to protest it
it's like the most prescient example of protectionism fucking ourselves over, but it's not like puerto rico or distant territories are truly american anyways lol
in any case i expect buttigieg's confirmation to be ~84-16; opposing:
risch/crapo
lee
inhofe
cruz
johnson
marshall
ernst
hawley
kennedy
lee/blackburn
tuberville
scott
braun
paul