Thread by @FPLLens

#FPLMatchups #GW20
From 5 Teams to 5 Players + Little Prince Pick of the Week

Welcome back to my matchups thread for GW20. I use a coach’s lens to examine teams, players, and situations in the premier league with the aim of gaining some insight for FPL.

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To begin, thank all who have enjoyed reading these. Your support and engagement mean the world to me.🙏🏽❤️

Last week I took a focused look at tactical situations for 5 teams. This week I will shift the lens to 5 players.
1.Auba
2.Bruno
3.Salah
4.Grealish
5.The Little Prince

AUBA
I wrote about ARS in last week’s matchups thread, and I do not believe I mentioned Aubameyang even once. I think that omission is representative of Aubameyang’s season. There was much fanfare around him to begin the season with his reclassification as a mid,

but the Gabonese has been as dormant as the team he plays on. In GW 12 he scored the only goal in a 1-0 loss to BUR but bounced back with a very nice goal against SOU in which Saka was, of course, instrumental. After that match, he was benched for the next 2 matches

and did not come back into the team until GW 16. This is where this story begins, 4 GWs ago.
Auba’s brace vs NEW caught many of us by surprise. We witnessed a chg in style of play from ARS, but Auba has not seemed to be a pivotal piece of that transformation, until the NEW match.

In fact, since his benching, Auba has been a player transformed. No player has a higher xG over the last 4 GWs (2.64). Auba also has the 2nd most SIB (11) and the 2nd most BC (4) over that time.

If we venture deeper into the way Auba is playing, see heatmaps, we will notice a change in where he is receiving passes.
The passes received heatmap in the next tweet shows us that Auba used to receive the ball right at the edge of the final third.

In the last 4 GWs, he is moving deeper towards midfield or higher into the final third to receive the passes. Pushing higher puts him in more dangerous attacking situations. Dropping deeper puts him in more space to dribble at opponents.

The stats 3 tweets up reflect Auba being in more dangerous attacking positions. The stats in the attached image are the result of him dropping to receive the ball in more space.

By bifurcating the area of the field where he receives passes, Auba has created an extra area of the pitch and that has resulted in an increase in almost all his attacking stats.

Auba has been able to more than triple his xG/game thanks also to the increased movement from players like Saka on the far side, ESR in the middle, and Tierney on the near side. Their movement creates opportunities for Auba’s movement, which creates more passing options.

If ARS can maintain the early success of the new approach, Auba will soon be talked about as an emerging premium asset (11.3M) that could provide value.
ARS face SOU in GHW 20. SOU have conc the 4th most chances from their right side (64) as KWP is given liberty to push forward.

What makes this an extra appealing matchup is that SOU have conceded the fewest chances in the league from their left side. They employ an unbalanced attack when attacking from the back and hold Bertrand and Diallo/Romeo (LDM) back to cover.

These factors should all combine for a very attractive fixture for the Gabonese player.
The innovator personalities in the community may be bringing him in for the SOU match. With KDBs injury, a switch to Aubameyang is quite simple.

But not many will be taking a punt on such an expensive asset when there are so many budget options available. The adoption chart shows how people typically respond to innovation. I would guess people who love ARS, and people who need to make up ground will be the innovators here

If Auba had good fixtures after SOU, I would bring him in, but I would love to hear from innovators if you are out there. I think he is a legit captain shout this GW, and I love when innovators are rewarded.

BRUNO
Bruno has been a cyclical player this season. The graph shows how Bruno tends to provide returns for a few GWs, then blank for 2. This has happened 3 times this season already. He seems to currently be at the beginning of his upward cycle and is an easy captain in GW20.

This is such a well-defined pattern that it begs an explanation. I have, however, looked at the matchups and the personnel on the field for all their matches and have been unable to find a link from a team perspective that could account for this pattern.

I have heard suggestions that Pogba may be limiting Bruno’s attacking capabilities. This theory has merit when examining it an eye test lens. When I see Pogba playing with MUN recently, I see a player that is very wasteful in possession.

He plays the game at a different pace than others on the team. This results in errant passes oftentimes behind players and it breaks up MUNs counter attacks. At the same time, Pogba has the incredible ability to see a 40-yard pass between players and zip-line a through ball

that beats multiple defenders. So, he is both the black hole and occasionally the big bang for MUN. As a coach this is a very tricky situation to handle, and something I don’t think OGS is getting enough credit for.

To explore the theory that Pogba is responsible for Bruno’s recent trough in points, I have put together some heatmaps to tell the story of what is going on tactically on the pitch.

The touch heatmap shows us that Pogba’s role has changed from a deep lying central midfielder to a true #8 on the right side of the 10 position (Bruno). Bruno’s touch heatmap also reveals an interesting development.

He seems to be less present in the middle of the pitch, or perhaps he has less freedom in his role. We see a concentrated orange spot of touches on the right side of the box. On the left side of the box we see more activity, but it is more scattered.

Lastly, Bruno seems to have lost corner duties from the right side & penalty kicks have not been available at the clip MUN are used to.
The next heatmap is the chances created heatmap. This begins to show us what is going on with these two players from a creativity perspective.

They have both enjoyed more creative periods over the past 4 GWs. As Pogba’s CC have moved forward towards the box, Bruno’s have moved to the right of the field, in the same area as Pogba. This is supported by Pogba's passes in the final third. More penetration recently.

From a coaching perspective, this is a concern because the team is not spreading the field with 2 creative players. Instead, they are making the attack predictable. If Bruno’s production does not surpass the average and flatten the line in the next GW or 2,

then I would begin to worry about inconsistency from him. He and Pogba may not be cannibalizing one another’s chances, there may indeed be enough to go around, but they are making blanks unpredictable, which impacts our captaincy decisions most weeks.

Perhaps not this GW though as he will surely be massively captained.

SALAH
5 consecutive blanks for Salah. Before this awful run of form, he had not blanked consecutively all season. I am not quite buying the idea that his dip in production is COVID-19 related

because he performed very well for about a month after his return. While Salah has still seen a respectable 3 BC over the last 5 matches, he only has 7 SIB, 2 SOT, and has the same xG as Antonio (1.55) despite playing 176 more minutes and facing WBA, NEW, SOU, MUN, BUR.

This was supposed to be the time of the Reds. What happened?
When I watch Salah play it seems to me that he always has a lot to do once he gets the ball. Teams are playing quite compact against Liverpool and there is not much space to operate.

Salah therefore ends up passing the ball back to TAA or into central midfield. Unfortunately for LIV, they had Shaqiri there to receive those balls, but we’ll get to that shortly.
The passes received heatmap confirm what we’re seeing on the field.

Salah has received the ball wider over the last 5 matches, but w/ the defense so compact, he struggles to create.
The result of a compact defense pushing Salah wider to receive passes is tears for FPL managers. Salah’s attacking stats have been cut in half by this shift.

What I just learned, and I find fascinating, is that Liverpool’s team stats aren’t down.

https://twitter.com/allaboutfpl/status/1352466072889266177?s=20

If the team stats have not changed much, and Salah’s stats are down severely, then where are the opportunities going?

According to @understat, Roberto Firmino averaged 2.34 shots/90 in the first 14 matches. He accumulated 5 goals and 3 assists over that time. In the past 5 GWs he has attempted a surprising 3.72 shots/90 and has 0 goals and 0 assists to show for it.

Firmino has more SIB than any player over the last 5 GWs (11), and the 15th most SOT (3) and an xG of only 1.39. He is a black hole in this team right now because he is being used improperly. He is being used improperly because Salah and Mane have no space to work in,

and Klopp has not devised ways through a deep, compact block.
Klopp needs to get his players back to performing to their strengths. This brings me to the last piece about Liverpool. Please forgive the rant-y nature of this next part.

Liverpool’s struggles are due to some poor finishing, it’s true, but their struggles have mostly been because of Klopp imo. VVD used to be the fulcrum in this attack. His ability to switch the point of attack quickly and precisely is a thing of wonder.

Thiago should be adopting this role now. He has the vision and the ability. The fact that LIV have not won a game when Thiago has started is disappointing from Klopp. (Thanks to @akshaymufc for that stat). Secondly, what is he doing with Shaqiri?

So wasteful and has always had a difficult time connecting with players in a game. Shaqiri is the anti-system player. He is not involved in the build-up, he is not coming close to scoring, and his key passes are close, but not quite right. Lastly, Klopp misses his new toy, Jota.

Jota made everyone on this team step up. The intensity he injects into the side with his ability to defend from the front is electric. Klopp seems to be somewhat out of ideas and is straying from the principles that make this such a good team.

He deserves more of the blame than Firmino in my view, but he is a phenomenal manager, and we all know Liverpool will change their tide sooner rather than later.

GREALISH
It’s Friday and I’m listening to The Wire podcast while waiting for AVL to play so I can finish the Grealish section of the article. To my great joy, @BigManBakar comes on and goes into these incredible Grealish stats w/ and w/o AEG. What a stroke of luck!

The guy saved me so much time when I finish on Saturday. Legend.
The table here is what I learned from him.
These stats of course coincide with Barkley’s injury and Grealish being moved into midfield. This gave El Ghazi the opportunity to showcase himself in Grealish’s old spot.

The move to midfield was a boost to Grealish’s creativity, but he paid the price with a decrease in goal threat. During Barkley’s absence, Grealish ceased being the talisman of the team, and became the enabler. He has 1 goal and 3 assists since the position change.

Dean Smith did a tremendous job adapting his team to the Barkley injury, and Grealish stepped up incredibly well as a creative playmaker. He was responsible for the insane stats El Ghazi was putting up. Now that Grealish has been moved back to the front line,

his goal-scoring opportunities should climb.
To add, the fixtures following BUR are favorable. He plays SOU in 21 & will have the same benefits Auba has in 20. Then he faces WHU in GW22, who have conceded 61 chances from their right as opposed to a mere 43 chances from the left.

Then AVL will most likely have a DGW of ARS and NEW in GW23. For these reasons, I am making Grealish my KDB replacement, and going triple MCI defense. I very much like Grealish’s potential for double digit hauls in GWs 21 – 23 and beyond.

LEE in 26, NEW in 28 and SHU in 29 all stand out. Worth a hit imo because of his potential as a long-term asset.

Little Prince Pick of the Week
I am bringing Soucek back after he let so many of us down in DGW19.

Thomas Soucek went from legend to outcast as he was unexpectedly pulled back into a defensive role in 2 good matchups. I am still uncertain what has caused this shift in his positioning, but I have 2 ideas:

1.Soucek’s presence is no longer required in the box because Antonio has returned.
2.Soucek plays the left defensive mid position. Moyes may not trust Benrahma, Lanzini, and Fornals to perform defensively unless he absolutely needs to take the risk.

Soucek is still holds good value, and can provide returns in certain fixtures, and I believe CRY in GW20 is one of those. Palace have conceded 53 headed chances, the 2nd most in the league. Even if Soucek is relegated to the wrong side of the midfield line,

he still has a good chance of rising like a salmon and heading in a set piece.
Thank you once again for carving some time from your life to read these words.

This is also posted on allaboutfpl.com along with so many other incredible resources. I'm grateful for that platform. 🙏🏽
I hope you enjoyed your time, and I wish you a mid-week filled with yummy greenz! Stay safe and stay connected.

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