1/ How are conspiracy theories dangerous? There are three main categories to consider: A) conspiracy theories can lead to radicalization and violence, B) conspiracy theories can disrupt democratic processes, C) conspiracy theories are a threat to public health
2/ The connection between conspiracy theories and violence is not new, @annamerlan, Michael Barkun, JW van Prooijen, Chip Berlet have covered this in books and academic publications. In the 90's NWO conspiracy theories generated fear and violent actions from some groups
3/ Bartlett and Miller in a Demos piece argued that "conspiracy theories are indeed a radicalizing multiplier: they hold extremist groups together and push them in a more extreme and sometimes violent direction."
4/ Benjamin Lee argued that "conspiracy theories are not only catalysts for radicalization but that they also have the function of preventing deradicalization within extremist groups because they improve solidarity and insulate believers from external challenges to their ideas"
5/Uscinski & Parent showed that 16% of survey respondents categorised as high on conspiratorial
predispositions deemed violence as an acceptable mode of expressing disagreement with the government. This is compared to around 8% agreement by those with low or medium predisposition
6/ Giry and Gürpınar explain that conspiracy theories centred on prejudices and stereotypes contribute to the production and circulation of social hate and the exaltation of ingroup values, status and identities. Particularly endemic in periods of riots, violence or crisis
7/ Conspiracist movements have been used and manipulated by authoritarian regimes that owe their rise, consolidation and perseverance to these propensities, with many authoritarian regimes establishing and legitimizing themselves
8/ In a global pandemic (especially) conspiracy theories play a role in denying established medical and scientific knowledge around COVID, vaccines, and the effectiveness of masks.
9/ What is especially dangerous is how conspiracy theories will lead those who believe in them to endanger themselves, their family and friends and their communities do to their beliefs.
10/ Medical conspiracy theories foster a false sense of security in those who believe in them as they claim COVID does not exist, it is a plot by a global-elite, there is a hidden agenda behind it, evil forces are doing this and those who are awake need to fight against them.
11/ With vaccines rolling out anti-vaxers & conspiracy theorists are walking hand in hand claiming that COVID vaccines cause harm, are killing 1000s of people, that the vaccines for a fake disease are a way for the elite to get rich or they are going to implant a chip to track us
12/ Those who believe this will refuse to inoculate themselves and their families thus endangering those who depend on hard immunity, as well as themselves and those close to them.
13/ Conspiracy theories also lead to a distrust in the political system & the foundations of democracy. This leads to a disruption of democratic processes by the dissemination of disinformation (voter fraud, stop the steal, mail-in-voting) to violent insurrections on capitol hill
14/ The reason to take these movements seriously is because they are a threat to core elements to our societies and democracies, and currently pose a public health risk to our societies and they will present themselves as a barrier to ending the pandemic.
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2/ At first glace it looks like all the numbers are up from 48hrs ago. Though this can be misleading. There are terrorgram channels that organized raids into QAnon channels, journalists & researchers joining, as well as the curious that could explain these numbers
3/ The dip in views is an interesting marker, as individuals may join a telegram channel, but if they loose interest they might not make the effort to leave. However, a decrease in views means less engagement in the channel with the content, which may indicate a decrease
1/ I believe that some of the more resilient strains of the QAnon movement will be the Qvangelicals and QAnon adherents that have an affinity towards SovCit ideals. It is important to note that QAnon is anti-democratic and anti-establishment
2/ QAnon is not a SovCit Movement, though there are some influencers and adherents that have an affinity for concepts from SovCits especially when it comes to legal and constitutional witchcraft
3/ the SovCit believe that the original government set up by the founding fathers founders, was slowly and secretly replaced by an illegitimate government sometime in the 1800s (right up the alley of conspiracists)
1/ There has not been a mas exodus of QAnon adherents so far, rather there was some mild group growth in telegram channels. The largest channel presently was created post deplatforming of QAnon and is run by 36 of the biggest QAnon influencers.
2/ We can see that this channel has seen constant growth I will be keeping on eye on this space for the next days to see if the events of yesterday will have a drastic impact on community growth
3/ The err is is engagement rate by reach which is calculated by (single post reach/number of subscribers)*100. The reach of the posts from this community is extensive on telegram and has supplanted QAnon channels that have been on Telegram for years.
START/ How did the QAnon community react once the eleventh hour passed, once Biden was sworn in, once there were no mass arrests, no declass, no post from Q? I will try and break down todays timeline.
1/ Yesterday into the wee hours of the morning was a series of QAnon interpretations, prayers and hopefulness that all of the past 4 years will have come to fruition
2/ The main narrative I was waking up to in QAnon was that noon was when everything was going down. Why? because they believe that the military and joint Chiefs of staff "know" that Biden will be "illegally sworn in". At that point the military does not need to obey Biden, Why?
1/There is a lot of hope and denialism going on in QAnon communities ahead of inauguration day so I will try and capture some of them throughout the day, and as the acts of President Trump are enacted and decoded for secret meanings.
2/ let's start with this: a QAnon influencer interpreted the jacket worn by Melania in her final address as "no signal texture". Meaning all communications will be shut down and Trump will use the EBS or GBS to announce the INSURRECTION act and military take over of the US
3/ there has been an increase in post and language that is similar to this "there is no political solution".I have mentioned regularly that if they feel the digital war is lost and Q failed they may adopt more extreme language. More and move they borrow DVE tropes.
Though all eyes are on the next few days, when the dust settles and the attention moves to other things. There will be some of us who will continue to research, analyse and wrote about these spaces. The problem does not disappear on Wednesday with a new admin.
The problem is here because we think about it in 4 year terms following electoral cycles, the problem is here because there is attention on it when large incident sof violence occur. However you don't end up with an insurection over night
You don't end up offline impacts of online Conspriacy theories overnight. The rise DVE is not due to months of factors but years. When all the temp extremism experts and reporters move on to other things, remember that this issue will not go away without a multisectoral effort.