Sneak peek of the Taiwan war thread, based on some preliminary research...
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2/ The military outcome of Operation Taiwan is a foregone conclusion. China's biggest challenge will be managing the diplomatic fallout and popular sentiment on the island.
3/ It's uncertain whether even the US could save Taiwan. For example, a 2017 RAND study estimated the US would have to dedicate between 100% and 250% (not a typo) of the *globally available* US fighter aircraft inventory to fighting China in order to protect the island
4/ A different RAND study estimated Taiwan's air defenses would suffer 75% attrition after 2 hours of conflict. To put this into perspective, this is a faster rate of attrition than Iraq's air defense network suffered in 1991's Gulf War.
5/ The US estimates that, absent US intervention, China could wrap up major combat operations after 72 hours. Based on publicly available literature, that seems generous. China will generate 1200 sorties per day from 39 airfields in range of Taiwan.
6/ With its own air force and air defense network neutralized in the first 2 hours of combat, plus mass waves of precision-guided/loitering munitions and UAVs providing constant airborne surveillance, Taiwan will lose one battalion per hour from bombardment alone.
7/ Given that TW has 35 brigades of 3 to 5 battalions each, and strength losses of 1/3 or more render a given formation combat-ineffective, that means within 24 hours over 2/3 of TW's combat formations will be knocked out - without a single PLA soldier landing on the island.
end/ It is highly likely that, without an immediate offer from the US of unconditional military support, the island will surrender within 1-2 days of fighting. This might happen even sooner if the mainland offers attractive terms; ie regime change instead of wholesale annexation.
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