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Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
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23 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
People need to be responsible.

Yes, government sucks and I scream it at the top of my twitter lungs every fkng day, but people misbehaving by partying in large (PS: more than 5) doesn't help either.
I fking know that this has taken so long; my soul is bruised for seeing the data.

Build your patience.
I have taken down an earlier tweet that QT'ed an undesirable twitter name that places a stigma of misbehaviour on the LGBT community in following health protocols.

Not all LGBT people misbehave as much as not all non-LGBT follow guidelines.
Rich people partying is fking wrong though. #EatTheRich

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More from @PJACaytonPhD

Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
24 Jan
Scribbles in the DOH Situationer

1) Steep incline in cases Image
2) Death rate slowly creeped up to 1.99% from previous year's 1.93-1.96%. Image
3) sources of steep inclines: Rest of Luzon, Mindanao, Central Visayas. Other areas had inclines, but not as steep. Image
Read 7 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
24 Jan
Note:
> 9 cases purged
> 3 recovs purged/changed status
> 1 death purged/changed status

Daily % Change & Crude Days-to-Double
Conf'd= 0.3515%, 134 days
Recov'd= 0.0355%, 119 days
Deaths= 0.5328%, 122 days

Net decrease in active = 5,838

Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Mass recovery Sunday cannot mask the increasing trend of active COVID-19 cases anymore.

The weekly net increase was 3,074. A trend reversal to increasing, from trough last Jan 10, 2021 at 20,087 cases.

The end of the pandemic is far from sight, and it is farther than before.
Active cases plot. Image
Read 4 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
27 Dec 20
Note: I am a stats guy. The learning that I will share is based on interactions with experts far more knowledgeable than me (like @darwinbandoy).

So, let's talk vaccines and numbers.
First, vaccine efficacy = % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions

Reference: who.int/influenza_vacc…
Also: herd immunity factor with no deaths

% of population infected to achieve herd immunity = (1-1/R0) x 100%

Where R0 = basic reproduction number, the no-interventions transmission ave. of the disease for every previously-infected case

Reference: academic.oup.com/jid/article/19…
Read 10 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
27 Dec 20
Scribbles in the DOH situationer.

1) possible holiday resurgence detected.
2) Wrong math again.
3) DOH estimate of Rt is touching 1.
Read 7 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
25 Dec 20
Note:
> 8 cases purged
> 6 recov's purged/changed status

Daily % Change & Crude Days-to-Double
Conf'd= 0.4030%, 112 days
Recov'd= 0.0699%, 97 days
Deaths= 0.0773%, 103 days

Net increase in active = 1,569

Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
In my personal spreadsheet (drive.google.com/file/d/11R0xHB…), PH has crossed 19 new cases per 100,000 in the 14-day period from 17.200 last Dec 16, coincidentally the start of Simbang Gabi.
The personally-designed doubling time estimate has declined from 222.88 days-to-double to 210.23 days-to-double. COVID-19 infections are accelerating again.

This is the beginning of a surge, my good reader.

The end of the pandemic is far from sight.
Read 4 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
6 Oct 20
Pulse Asia's survey methodology is typical of a private survey firm's approach to sampling given limited resources but still able to make some measurable conclusions.
I am not an agent of Pulse Asia, but Pulse Asia has technical notes able to be understood by people exposed to survey sampling methods.

pulseasia.ph/ulat-ng-bayan-…
Let break this down:

1st, Pulse Asia's domain of concern in studying to have measurable accuracy with sampling is the four geographic areas: NCR, Luzon w/o NCR (termed Balance Luzon), Visayas, and Mindanao, each of the four alloted 300 samples each, thus 1,200 samples.
Read 8 tweets

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