@AAZMining is my biggest holding and I don't think everyone appreciates the opportunity it offers. Its unlike most miners as it produces metals rather than shares: gold and copper. Shares in issue were 112m in 2014, now 114m. Market cap £184m, SP 160p. Since 2018 #AAZ has paid
dividends of 19.5c, with 9c paid in 2020 and a special dividend expected to be declared very soon. They have no debt and at year end near $40m of cash. 2020 was a year when everything went wrong - pandemic followed by war - and they missed production targets as key staff
were conscripted, but they still produced 70k GEO. Before the war they were guiding 25k oz production in Q4 as they dug into better grades at their flagship mine. AAZ had rights over 3 mines in occupied territories that nobody had thought had any value. Suddenly
that has changed, and they will be theirs. The biggest produced 120k oz last year. There will need to be some infrastructure added, but basically, a company that produced 70k last year could well be producing 220k+ within 12/18 months. No exploration risk, just based
on what is already proved up. Then there is the potential exploration upside, particularly at Ordubad, within an enclave that has been hard to access but that too has changed as a result of the war and a new road being built to access Nakhchivan. When AAZ floated, Ordubad was
the jewel in the crown, with an estimated resource of over 45m ounces suggested in the IPO documents. And it has a board that owns 40% of the shares, and is heavyweight: John Sununu was George W Bush's chief of staff, Reza Vaziri is head of the US/Azerbaijan chamber of
commerce, which includes the likes of Kissinger and Scowcroft. Very smart board who can protect shareholder interests and manage geopolitical risk. Under the profit share agreement, Azerbaijan get half of the gold produced and so have no incentive to disturb arrangements
So, you have a company that's debt free and cashed up, pays chunky dividends, never dilutes shareholders, has had a difficult year yet is considering a special dividend, has a strong board, and has just had a windfall that must, conservatively, triple its value.
It was £1.70 in August 2019, when gold was $1400. You can buy it for less than that now. It's a much bigger, stronger company with imminent substantial growth ahead. They are presenting at Proactive this week. I can't think of a better risk/reward play at the moment.
POG, which I held, went from 10p to 40p in 6 months last year. In terms of value, management and the clarity of the path to growth, I think AAZ now is a much better prospect. DYOR, but don't dismiss it because you think its a small, high-risk miner: it really is different.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Donald Pond

Donald Pond Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DonaldPond6

21 Jan
Well, its been a long wait at #AAZ but no matter how you look at it, the new mines, one of which produces 120k oz annually and has reserves of 8m oz must surely make the company worth at least 2.5 times what it was worth 6 months ago, when it was producing 80k oz
of course it will take time to get everything productive, but the RNS today shows a huge increase in resources and the prospect of a real acceleration at Ordubad, which is a huge, 45m oz resource that has been stuck in an enclave and hard to progress. Upshot is, current SP
of 155p is still incredibly cheap. I think £3 quite attainable in weeks, and I expect much higher by the end of the year. Plus you get a dividend of 9c last year (with a special still to come) to keep you entertained. My biggest holding, by some way. And I will add
Read 4 tweets
1 Sep 20
#DDDD is a big holding for me that I built between March and, well, last Friday. A lot of people think of it as a pharma company with the attendant risks of drug development. I don’t think that’s right. My understanding is that @4dpharmaplc have a huge amount of data
concerning the make up of gut bacteria in people with various conditions and “healthy” people. From analysis they can see what bacteria are dominant and which are missing among those with afflictions. But crunching the data is key, as is the philosophy of using
Bacteria that occur naturally in the gut. So it is a data driven, bottom up (almost literally) process, where the biome of the ill pinpoints what they are missing. As a result, I think the risk of phase 2/3 failure is much lower than in traditional pharma. There is
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!