Thread by @sundersays

Weekly Covid attitudes memo, no 40.
- Growing concern overNHS pressures, confidence rising in vaccine rollout. .
- Self-reported compliance is up, but age-gap reopening
- British public welcomedBiden’s inauguration, mainly due to departure of Trump.
britishfuture.org/wp-content/upl…

By 60% to 35%, the public remain confident about the NHS coping, but by the narrowest margin since back at the start

The 35% who are not confident about the NHS coping is highest (41%) in London. (This is from Ipsos-Mori tracking)
ipsos.com/sites/default/…

People have noticed the pace of the vaccination rollout. Confidence in how government is handling it (61%) is +20 over the fortnight.

Can the government hit its mid-Feb target is quite a tricky question to be able to answer. (2/3 people do have an opinion, with a modest rise in confidence).

YouGov comparative study picks up quite significant rises in appetite to get vaccinated across Europe (the comparison with November) as this question became less hypothetical. Both high (UK) and low (France) starting points going up, though Germany up less in this survey

That rise in confidence in vaccines appears to be a European phenomenon - with Asian and North American attitudes so marked a shift in the last 2 months in the YouGov comparative study
yougov.co.uk/topics/interna…

On self-reported compliance with the rules, this is how the pattern has changed over time. [Would welcome insights in how to read changes in self-reported behaviour: this summer v Dec/Jan change reflects new strain & rising cases shifting perceptions]
ipsos.com/sites/default/…

This is "completely" follow the rules [excluding 'nearly all the time'] by age cohort. It does suggest younger adults did think it was all over in late summer, while older people have been the most concerned by new strain this winter.

On policy, there is barely now any "lockdown scepticism" about current need for lockdown 3. (As opposed to when to reopen things in future)

Just 9% think current rules are "too strict" - which has dipped as rules tightened.
While 48% think the lockdown is "not strict enough"

9% "rules are too strict" very striking in this context
* 7% of people "no solid evidence for existence of Covid (June 2020) when 14% agreed with a pandemic vaccination plot conspiracy.
* 9% said 'true' to a mad Bill Gates conspiracy in a November 2020 poll.

Of course, you don't *have* to be mad to oppose lockdown 3.

Empirically, among public, data does suggest crank/bonkers opponents of lockdown3 do outnumber sane/rational opponents of lockdown3 (by a wide margin) [because sane opponents more scarce since new strain+rising cases]

Across party politics, the British public felt positive about the inauguration of President Biden, by 65% to 14% (+51), a view shared by 6/10 Conservatives (+35) and 8/10 Labour (+77) voters

Much clearer UK views about Trump (74% negative; 13% positive) than Biden (49% positive, 18% negative). No British politician has similarly broad net approval in the UK as Biden +31 & Harris +30 at this moment of inauguration (with possible exception of Chancellor Rishi Sunak)

My colleague @jake_puddle and I are continuing to collate this weekly memo. Links of studies etc are welcome. Please DM myself or @steveballinger if you would like to be on the (Friday) email distribution list. I am then tweeting the links at some point over the weekend.