Thread by @studentactivism

This all makes a lot of sense. My only question is whether the Dems currently have 50 votes for doing what @joshtpm urges them to do here, and if not, whether grinding along the way they're currently going for a little longer is likely to get them to 50.

https://twitter.com/TPM/status/1353742761078513668

You've got to make a deal with McConnell, or you've got to get Manchin on board, or you've got to find somebody on the other side of the aisle to get you to 50 without Manchin. (My read of the current situation is that Manchin isn't yet ready to jump).

And as Josh notes, the "jump" Manchin (and Sinema) would need to make here isn't an "axe the filibuster" jump. It's just a "tell McConnell to pound sand on the rules vote" jump.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1353744611580243972

So...Manchin makes it explicit. He won't sign on to the deal Josh (and others) have suggested. This is ugly.

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1353830087758651392

Seems pretty clear that McConnell has no reason to compromise with Schumer, and if that's right, Manchin's position seems to be that Schumer has to give McConnell whatever he wants to get a deal.

Which, frankly, doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense, not least because it weakens Manchin's own hand. Unless Manchin is somehow thinking of jumping ship and joining the GOP, and is just looking for the Dems to give him an excuse.

I'd pretty much dismissed that possibility after Biden won, because who the hell becomes a Republican in 2021? But who knows?

(And of course Manchin could go independent and caucus with the GOP.)

Like I say. Ugly.