I am still following r/wsb relatively closely, as this is a pretty incredible cultural phenomenon. WSB seems to view itself not only as a money machine, but also as a kind of righteous rebellion against the corrupt finance establishment (31.7k likes is huge)
All manner of guesswork/conspiracy about institutional collusion starting to get posted. The brokers are in on it, etc., not just the obvious explanation of jacking up margins in response to increased vol (I believe this is more likely?)
See for example this ongoing 3-part essay: quality of the narrative is really something
Screenshot of the discord. imagine twitch chat where the livestream is just... the market. and it's not even open. I've hung around a couple trading discords before, but... wow
There are like 26,000 people on this discord looking at this live
I'm not teched up enough that I know how to record a chunk of the discord chat but I'd encourage ppl to just tune in for 5 mins or so, the atmosphere is... really something
28,000 now. gonna check it out tmr during trading hours
Cynically, you could try to scrape all of this and correlate intraday returns with it. Data density isn't a problem: I am seeing like around 20-30 posts per second. Extracting some meaningful variables from this might be the hard part
For comparison just imagine you had access to the entire timestamped chat logs in every bloomberg chat in history... and this stuff is literally almost 100% public. I am listening to a crypto millionaire discussing Roth IRA optimization atm
I am out for today, but... oh man
36,000 now. Voice chat is a totally illegible cacophony of computer-distorted lagged voices. Continuous laughter. I heard "fuck the SEC" a couple times and then "GME 192"
(rmb tweets not investing advice etc)
It is a quasi-religious experience. It is like I am listening to some kind of church hymn, or battle song to the tendie gods
There is a baby crying in the background somewhere. Someone has repeated 6-7 times "I MADE A MILLION DOLLARS"
There are virtual casino, roulette, etc. channels within the discord, where there's bot-run casino games where you can bet wsbcoins. so you can lose fake money if you want to take a break from losing real money
I think somebody figured out "BB" sounds like "baby" and the baby is still here, and this is funny
Gotta prep class so I'm out for now. Teaching my undergrads about short squeezes
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Suppose gamestop GME is trading at $20. You buy a bunch of call options with strike $30 from your market maker (MM)
You have a long call position on GME, so you profit if GME goes up
MM has a short call position, so MM loses money if GME goes up
MM, however, doesn't actually want to take bets on GME. MM's trick is that MM takes a position in the underlying stock which hedges the call option. MM thus buys a bunch of GME stock. If GME goes up, MM loses money on her option position, but gains on her stock position
Any security based on GME is, in a very short span of time, simply a bet on whether GME will go up or down. Hence, you can hedge any security just by taking a position in GME. This is called "delta hedging"
(there is some subtlety here which I'll gloss over for now)
While I don't completely agree with the sentiment, I think the median person - even perhaps the median econ grad student - would be more impactful, richer, and happier in industry than in academia
Nontrivial fraction of students never work a full-time job before grad school. Ofc not everyone has the luxury to do so, especially with grad admissions becoming more and more competitive, but I did and found it really useful for discovering my preferences
Knowing really what the industry option looks like helps a lot in keeping sane during grad school, and just helps you think clearly about your personal tradeoffs
I often say to grad students: a reasonable thing to aim for in grad school is ~2-3 essentially complete and posted papers, alongside your JMP. This often looks like your JMP, plus your 2nd-yr paper, a paper from RA'ing for a faculty, or from working with classmates
Of course, some people get top jobs with only one very, very good paper. This is very risky though - you don't know ex-ante whether your paper will be very good! Most schools care about productivity, so having a couple of completed papers helps
Even if the papers are not change-the-world papers. Also, it exercises your paper-writing muscle. Not everyone comes into grad school ready to write ECMA's!
Largely agree with Ben's points here, some other thoughts...
In physics, mathematical models are either basically correct or not. Newton's laws either hold in all cases or are a wrong (or at least, incomplete and approximate) view of the world
We're taught modern physics through famous experiments that show "edge cases" (double slit experiment, gravity bending light, etc.) which falsify classical physics
The implicit philosophy of science here is that any evidence demonstrating a case where theory doesn't hold implies
- The old theory is wrong
- A new/broader theory is needed
@lukestein@ben_golub@bennpeifert Agree essentially on all points, I'm just saying you shouldn't expect to make money if you sell the near-term options underlying the VIX. The market basically seems to expect a lot of vol in a short time frame
@lukestein@ben_golub@bennpeifert Also VIX squared forecasts variance for any jump-free process, it doesn't rely on Black-Scholes assumptions (it used to, but they switched to the model-free formula summing across strikes at some point)