The important difference between AstraZeneca's relationship with the UK and with the EU, and the reason it has fallen behind schedule on 50m vaccine doses promised to the EU, is that the UK agreed the deal with AZ a full three months before the EU did - which gave...
AZ an extra three months to sort out manufacturing and supply problems relating to the UK contract (there were plenty of problems). Here is the important timeline. In May AZ reached agreement with Oxford and the UK government to make and supply the vaccine. In fact Oxford...
had already started work on the supply chain. The following month AZ reached a preliminary agreement with Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy, a group known as the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance, based on the agreement with the UK. The announcement was 13 June. BUT the EU...
insisted that the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance could not formalise the deal. The European Commission insisted it should take over the contract negotiations on behalf of the whole EU. So were another two months of talks and the contract was not signed till the end of August...
What is frustrating for AZ is that the extra talks with the European Commission led to no material changes to the contract, but wasted time on making arrangements to make the vaccine with partner sites. The yield at these partner sites has been lower than expected. The problem...
is in the course of being sorted. AZ say it is working 24/7 to make up the time and deliver the quantities the EU wanted. It says its contract with the EU - as with the UK - was always on a "best effort" basis, because it was starting from scratch to deliver unprecedented...
amounts for no profit. AZ is not blaming the EU. But it does not understand why it is being painted as the "bad guy" given that if the deal had happened in June, when Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy wanted it done, most of these supply issues would already...
have been sorted. A pro-EU source at the company says "I understand Brexit better now".
PS According to AZ, the EU claim that it pays less to AZ per dose, and that is why AZ "works harder for the UK than for the EU", is "completely incorrect". It charges the same price to all buyers, wherever they are in the world, subject to small adjustments due to local costs
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The government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (or Nervtag) has concluded that the new Covid-19 strain may be a bit more lethal than the existing strain. I've spoken to the influential Nervtag member, Prof Neil Ferguson (@neil_ferguson)...
about this. He has given me this statement: "it is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty. Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people...
testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death. That suggests a 1.3-fold increased risk of death. So for 60 year-olds, 13 in 1000 might die compared with 10 in 1000 for old strains. The big caveat is that we only know which strain people were infected...
This is an unashamed public information Tweet. It is prompted by a conversation I've had with an anxious doctor who is vaccinating against Covid-19 in east London. It is about why up to one-in-six Pfizer/BioNTech doses are being wasted in at least some vaccination...
centres. Here is why this shocking waste is occurring. The vaccine arrives at the centres in small vials. As you can see from the attached Public Health England/NHS document, the original protocol said each vial contains only five doses. But...
my doctor source tells me there is usually a sixth dose in each vial, and that she and her fellow vaccinators have been instructed to throw way the vial after five doses. In her centre all these sixth doses are being thrown away, and she assumes this practice is widespread. As...
.@CMO_England gave a simple clear public health justification for extending the gap between the two necessary vaccine doses to three months: widening the gap will allow twice as many people to be vaccinated than would otherwise be the case; and even the first dose...
gives "significantly more" than.50% protection against the virus. Ergo, there is a net benefit from giving lesser vaccine protection to more people. But Whitty does accept that by widening the gap between doses the risk of what he calls "an escape mutant" would be increased...
(that is the virus would mutate and build up resistance to the existing vaccines - which would be something of a setback). However he sees that risk as worth taking because it is "sufficiently small" compared with the benefits of vaccinating more people more rapidly. And...
As I mentioned yesterday, in a fortnight AstraZeneca will be putting 2m doses of the vaccine into vials. At that point the limiting factor on how many people can be vaccinated will switch from manufacturing to distribution - and in particular how long it takes to...
"process" each person who turns up to be vaccinated. It allegedly takes three times longer in the UK than in Israel to do the on-site paperwork for each vaccinated person. Which, if true, means the UK would be vaccinating only a third of the numbers of people it could be...
vaccinating every day. And in the current raging epidemic that would not be an academic underperformance but it would have a big and huge cost in lives. This excess of bureaucracy in the UK feels real to me, in that when I took my 90-year-old mum to be vaccinated before...
Lockdown 3 is basically back to March’s Lockdown 1, with a few wrinkles. As I said yesterday, Lockdown 2 in November, which did not include school closures, reduced the R to less than 1, but the scientists say it would not be effective enough now, because the new strain is...
circa 70% more infectious than the original strain. So all schools will close, and all Tier 4 restrictions will be imposed throughout England.
In case you want more on the logic of the lockdown, here is my explainer from yesterday
This is important. AstraZeneca expects to be able to supply 2m doses of the Oxford/AZ vaccine to the NHS every week by the second half of January. This week the number is "only" 500,000 because the company kept the vaccine in "drug substance" form pending approval. But AZ is...
ramping up fast and filling vials at a rapid rate. The government knows this. But perhaps it is not surprising that @BorisJohnson and @MattHancock are steadfastly refusing to confirm the 2m-a-week target, in that vaccine manufacture is far from simple, and they're...
presumably scarred from all those other targets they've announced and missed during this crisis. But the politics pushed to the side, it is realistic to expect a massive vaccination programme to be well into its stride within a fortnight, so long as the...