A milesone, or perhaps millstone, in world trade. It is now 25 years since the start of the first US-EU dispute over food at the WTO. The US asked for consultations over the EU ban of hormone treated beef on 26 January 1996. This issue has never been satisfactorily resolved.
The EU-US disagreement over hormone treated beef goes back even further than formal dispute, to 1981, with the first US retaliation coming in 1989. Although the EU now give a special 'high quality beef' quota as recompense, the disagreement essentially remains live.
Over time US and EU disagreements over food trade policy have grown to include chlorinated chicken, EU geographical indications, and ractopamine in pork. And each side is well backed by domestic interests with large financial stakes, to leave little room for changing policy.
The UK we may note has yet to take a position on the issues around food and trade. A lot of US money is being used to lobby for allowing their food through a US trade deal. But consumers and producers alike quite likes the EU policy position. Ministers dissemble accordingly.
The chances of the US and EU resolving differences over food trade policy any time soon seem slim. And while major stakeholders prioritise these disputes it makes it harder for EU and US to work together on other issues such as China. To be continued...

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More from @DavidHenigUK

28 Jan
Small business in particular struggling with new Brexit red tape. Entirely predictable, and a function of a world trade system distorted against smaller traders. Stay with me a short while as Brexit threadmeister and story author @pmdfoster may say... 1/ ft.com/content/13f0f1…
The nub of the issue is the extra costs for most exports, whether this is paperwork or meeting different regulatory requirements. A fixed cost per exported load inevitably adds a higher percentage cost to small than larger business... and they may lack expertise. 2/ Image
You'll note that in the EU, with virtually no paperwork or differing regulations, the costs of exports are similar for smaller and large companies - though even there there is a big company bias, because who can afford to lobby for friendly regulations? 3/
Read 10 tweets
27 Jan
Feeling like those who jumped on the AstraZeneca bandwagon did so unwisely. Many repeat offenders.

Starts to feel like an entirely normal case of over promising and contractual ambiguity, made toxic by urgency, heightened emotion and regional politics.
You might be surprised how ambiguous government - business contracts can be (and trade agreements for that matter). And therefore that you never want to go to dispute if you can help it.
From a UK point of view it would be wise not to assume the EU is always wrong, and not to make a habit of telling them how wrong they are. Because there's always the risk this will come back to hurt us.
Read 4 tweets
27 Jan
Almost as if the Prime Minister and government haven't been telling the truth about the absence of checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
I'm beginning to think a lot more people should have been following trade twitter before December 31 because this was another known issue the UK government chose to ignore.
What you need to know now from trade twitter is that the UK-EU agreement will not be the subject of tweaks or renegotiations until both sides want it to be, and the chances are right now neither want that, so we are stuck with the text we have.
Read 5 tweets
26 Jan
A bit to disentagle here. In principle yes. But there will be some performance on both UK and EU sides. And some healthy competition. That's fine.

More seriously, a UK wanting to show itself a better ally to the US than the EU has to be tempting.

@thomaswright08 @Sime0nStylites Image
Pretty clearly the current UK government wants to pretend the EU isn't our neighbour and largest trade partner. We want to be a Pacific power. Does the US respond wearily and point us back to Europe or encourage anything the UK can helpfully do? Tricky diplomatic issue.
In trade key UK advisers have long dreamed of the UK leaving the European regulatory area and joining the US in battle against EU regulation. That could be good for US agriculture interests, but bad for existing trade disputes with the EU. Again, how does the US respond?
Read 4 tweets
26 Jan
Interesting read and another reminder that as a storyteller Johnson is strong, but some qualifications. Britain, or England? And how much does it help that it becomes increasingly clear that the current official opposition is incapable of creating a narrative?
I find it interesting how little serious analysis is given to the Johnson communications style which is so important. It seems to me to exemplify certain English characteristics, almost a bit of a joke about being not so good, but also a bit of optimism about a better future.
So Johnson's failures, a couple of poor EU deals, a high covid death rate, are half-heartedly explained away, but unconvincingly, because he isn't trying to win the argument but the sympathy and sentiment as a bumbling Englishman. It seems to work for enough people.
Read 5 tweets
25 Jan
While the anti-lockdown extremists have poisoned the debate on lifting covid restrictions (they are good at this) I do wonder what a sensible discussion on how to ease restrictions would look like. Because we are having problems. theguardian.com/education/2021…
Would have thought first priority should be schools, particularly primary, and exam age (bad news for 11-14 year olds, but so be it). That is presumably the only indoor easing that is even possible, and is probably balances by new travel restrictions.
The next easing after schools should probably be outdoor socialising. So not reopening bars and restaurants, even socially distanced, but making us meet outside where the risk seems significantly lower.
Read 5 tweets

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