Not very often you run a model for 384hrs and see 85% hemisphere below mean of 1979-2010. Highest hour was 0.4 midnight 26th.lowest minus 0.6 29th 06.00.
Extraordinary.
Still trending.
NH minus 4 degs below 1979-2010 mean.
Still trending.
That's a significant event for Europe and the UK.
Simply Amazing amount of Cold from West to East.
Time to start preparing I think.
Cars.. Top up fluids and Antifreeze.
Aviaries... Check water every morning.
Local councils.. Gritters ready.
Still trending.
So the Trend continues and the event is getting closer, this is an incredible set up for cold to strike Europe and America/Canada.
Any precipitation would fall as #Snow. DP"s in minus double figures.
High pressure blocking any beast from the East, but this has potential to be a very cold few weeks for much of N/NW/NE Europe.
Huge temperature anomalies in the NH, check out US CONUS. 6-10th Feb.
Again evident in every update.
Set up still viable, interesting set up around 7th February for the aouth/SE and London.
Or concrete but the Low to our SE shifted north slightly on the 18z.
Snow in London and the SE.
Pretty brisk Easterlies too.
As per previous tweets, our focus was on 2 areas. the low to our SE and the High to our NE.
The low has shifted north over the last few runs making a snow event for the SE.
Can change however, i think any changes will be for and not against.
06z GFS looking to bring the low in the SE further north, little changes big outcome.
This would now be snow less for the SE.
Would be Blizzard conditions running odd the North Sea for NE and Scotland.
12z as suggested.
High moves east low pushes North.
Snow day in the SE Cancelled.
Wind ESE.
Euro and the GFS 12z holding on to the cold.
Euro and other models want to bring cold west, GFS holding off for now.
Low to SE still bone of contention. 👇
Forming up now and 3-4 days out, good model agreement on the Low to our SE stalling, this will bring significant disruption to travel, warnings will be issued in due course, Gusty winds could see drifting in Rural areas.
Could see 20cm in far east, over half a foot in Old money!
@scotpolitik@starbroker@JaggerMickOZ 1.Less solar irradience received at the Equator would result in a reduction of poleward heat, even at a reduction of .3 to 1Wm².
1960's marked the peak in irradience at 1362Wm², heat stored in the Oceans takes 50-60 years to dissipate.
@scotpolitik@starbroker@JaggerMickOZ 2.
A continued reduction in irradience (currently 1360.6Wm²) since 2014 will reduce Equatorial SST's , peak years 2015/16.
The hypothesis, that a decline in solar activity reduces the latitudinal extent of the Hadley Circulation and decreases mid-latitudinal monsoon intensity.
@scotpolitik@starbroker@JaggerMickOZ 3.
This is matched by data, showing increased dryness in central west Africa and increase in precipitation in temperate zones north. Meanwhile, mid-latitudinal storm tracks in the temperate zones increased and moved equatorward.
Observed.
1-Thread-Upwelling.
In previous thread i talked about the Great Ocean Conveyor and it's journey around the Planet, in this thread we will look at "Upwelling" (Rise of cold water) to the surface.
2. wonder how the deep water comes back to the surface?, well This happens in locations where the flow of the surface currents makes room for the water below to come to the surface – to 'upwell'. The upwelled water is generally much colder than the surrounding surface waters.
3. These upwelling areas are crucial for life in the ocean, as upwelled water is rich in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus compounds.
At depth, where there is no sunlight, these nutrients are of no use, until it reaches the "Sunlit zone".
1.There are three main mechanisms for heat transport.
In the atmosphere, through the movement of warm and cold air masses (winds)as latent heat in water vapour: water evaporates from oceans in the tropics and is released at higher latitudes when the vapour condenses into clouds.
2. The system of surface and deep currents that cools the tropics and warms high latitudes is sometimes called the global conveyor because it acts as a giant conveyor belt that transports heat, salt, nutrients and dissolved gases such as carbon dioxide and oxygen around Oceans.
3..you will recognise the map attached . It shows the wind driven circulation with its five subtropical gyres, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and two subpolar gyres in the northern hemisphere.