NEW: It's official. More than 100,000 people in the UK have now died from Covid-19, according to govt figures.
100,162 died within 28 days of a positive test.
103,602 deaths with Covid on the death certificate.
Over 5x what Patrick Vallance said would be a "good" outcome.
100,162 died within 28 days of a positive test.
103,602 deaths with Covid on the death certificate.
Over 5x what Patrick Vallance said would be a "good" outcome.
Remember, this is likely a conservative estimate.
If we look at excess deaths (more reliable measure) in England alone, if we look at 2020 and the first two weeks of 2021, total deaths are up 15% on the average, or by 80,704.
If we look at excess deaths (more reliable measure) in England alone, if we look at 2020 and the first two weeks of 2021, total deaths are up 15% on the average, or by 80,704.
With these new figures UK is currently the worst performing country in the world in terms of deaths per million. Should be treated with a bit of caution as a result of varying reporting methods/UK having new variant but no doubt the UK is among the very worst performing nations.
Prime Minister says "we did everything we could" to minimise loss of life
No-one doubts ministers (like everyone else) will be horrified by this
The question is how many of these deaths might have been prevented by different policy decisions? Either with hindsight or without?
No-one doubts ministers (like everyone else) will be horrified by this
The question is how many of these deaths might have been prevented by different policy decisions? Either with hindsight or without?
Neil Ferguson said earlier lockdown in March would have saved 25,000 lives
And what about earlier action in mid to late December when we knew how much more transmissible the new variant was?
And what about earlier action in mid to late December when we knew how much more transmissible the new variant was?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1347274149274791936?s=20
What has happened from the autumn is especially important and is the area where the case is perhaps strongest that govt could have done more.
Because from 1st Nov up to 15th January 44306 died. In just 2.5 months.
Was every action that could have been taken, actually taken?
Because from 1st Nov up to 15th January 44306 died. In just 2.5 months.
Was every action that could have been taken, actually taken?
There was the new variant in this time. But as the thread I've posted shows, from mid to late December ministers were aware of greater transmissibility.
More broadly there are still gaps in our strategy in helping people to self isolate, sick pay and in the care sector.
More broadly there are still gaps in our strategy in helping people to self isolate, sick pay and in the care sector.
Consider the graph below. Deaths rise substantially in months where the epidemic has got out of control.
If lockdown had come earlier in March, if SAGE advice had been acted on in the autumn, if Christmas mixing had been completely cancelled, might things have been different?
If lockdown had come earlier in March, if SAGE advice had been acted on in the autumn, if Christmas mixing had been completely cancelled, might things have been different?
We can never prove the counterfactual but it seems reasonable to conclude (as per Neil Ferguson's comments) there's at least a strong possibility they would have been.
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