LAUNCHED TODAY: Our team at @ResolveTSL worked with @NYTimes on an interactive risk alert tracker so you can see detailed information on risk in your community—and guidance on how to stay safe. 1/
We check the weather before we leave our homes. Now there's a new way to check how much Covid is "raining" in all 3,000+ U.S. counties. 2/
Although state and county health departments share Covid data, there are often big differences in what gets reported and how. 3/
We're already familiar with risk alert systems for other health threats—pollen counts, air quality alerts, and Smokey Bear's fire danger level. This project uses county-level data to assess the severity of local Covid spread. 4/
It's not telling you what to do, but empowering you to make your own decisions based on the level of risk in your community. 5/
Even though having safe and effective vaccines is a game changer, it will still be important to track how much Covid is spreading as more people get vaccinated. Tamping down spread is crucial to save lives and also prevent dangerous new mutations. 6/
Each person and community can make decisions based on their risk. Some calls are obvious. If bars and indoor dining are open somewhere at an extremely high risk level, it's not smart to dine indoors and it’s putting people in danger of infection. 7/
Until the pandemic is over, we should continue to practice the 3 W's at all risk levels—wear a mask, watch your distance, wash your hands (plus the 2 V's—ensure good ventilation and get vaccinated when it's your turn). 8/
The pandemic won't last forever. Patience, discipline, and solidarity are key. This new risk alert tracker can empower us to make informed decisions, hold communities accountable, and advance progress in fighting our common enemy: Covid. 9/9 nyti.ms/3t0Ct4L
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The post-holiday flood cresting but cases, hospitalizations and deaths remain astronomically high. Viral mutants increasingly concerning. Vaccination is our best tool but only one of several we must use more and better. 1/17
Although the wave is cresting, last week cases (3x), hospitalizations (2x), and deaths were still far higher than at any point before the current surge. National positivity decreased from 15% to 12%. A flood with receding waters is still a flood. bit.ly/39WQ9VF 2/
Reported cases don’t necessarily reflect community risk. E.g., NYS has higher rate than Tennessee, but Tennessee tests at 3x lower rate, with much higher percent positivity. Tennessee likely diagnosing smaller proportion of its COVID-19 cases than New York. Risk is higher. 3/
Covid Epi Weekly: Could Covid Kill 1 Million Americans?
New strains are a shot across the bow. A message from the virus: We outnumber you. We’re more persistent. We change and adapt.
It’s up to us: Fight smarter. Collaborate. Protect ourselves and each other better. 1/thread
First, the numbers. Cases, hospitalizations, deaths continue to increase; expect continuing increases. The scale of cases is mind-boggling. More than 1.6 MILLION diagnosed last week - maybe a million total infections a day. bit.ly/2XLsamQ 2/
May be the beginning of a plateau of hospitalizations; too soon to be sure. If we could scale up infusion of monoclonal antibodies for people at risk for hospitalization but not yet very ill, we could reduce this number and the stress on health workers and health systems. 3/
People who have been vaccinated may think they no longer need to wear a mask or distance from others. Not true.
First, even highly effective vaccines aren’t 100% effective.
Second, we don’t yet know if the vaccine protects against infection or only against illness. In other words, a vaccinated person might still be able to spread the virus, even if they don’t feel sick.
On March 10, 2020, I addressed the question, "Could Covid kill 1 million Americans?"
/thread
I recalled my first meeting with President Obama @BarackObama. It was in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, just as the H1N1 pandemic was beginning to spread widely. The President asked: “We’re not going to see a million deaths in this country, are we, doctor?”
2/
I replied, with more certainty than I felt, “No, Mr. President, we won’t.” Fortunately, that was correct.
In early March 2020, if asked the same question about the Covid pandemic, I would have had to answer: “I hope not, but that’s a possibility.”
3/
Covid Epi Weekly: Humanity vs Virus – the Virus is Winning
Perfect storm: 1. Uncontrolled spread in most of US, 2. Slow vaccine rollout, 3. Worrisome mutations increase transmissibility and could undermine diagnostic testing, antibody treatment and vaccine efficacy.
1/thread
A misleading narrative suggests that uncontrolled spread of Covid shows that public health measures don’t work. The plain truth: most places didn’t stick with the program long enough to get cases to a manageable level and now masking and distancing aren’t being done reliably. 2/
So yes, if you don’t use masks correctly and consistently, they don’t work. And vaccines don't work if people don’t take them. CDC data getting ever more available and useful; Covid Tracking Project remains invaluable. bit.ly/3q2jAMm 3/
Which places have done the best job of protecting people from Covid? A thread.
Best at early action: TAIWAN. Quickly halted flights, quarantined travelers, implemented widespread testing, and quadrupled face mask production within a month. The US now has more cases and deaths every 5 minutes than Taiwan has had to date.
Best at learning from recent epidemics: LIBERIA. Hit hard by Ebola in 2014, Liberia was one of the first countries to screen for Covid at airports and implement comprehensive control measures, including rapid testing, complete contact tracing, and effective quarantine.