Thread by @AlexRoy144

A lot of people refer to self-driving as a "race"

And many think it'll be winner-take-all.

But that doesn't make much sense.

Self-driving will be winnerS-take-most.

Let's talk about why.

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groundtruthautonomy.com/who-will-win-t…

The self-driving race narrative suggests a single winner crosses the finish line.

But what would that self-driving finish line look like?

And if one company crossed it, why would everyone else give up?

The market for autonomous miles is in the trillions.

2/X

No transportation technology has ever had a single finish line or winner.

Did the Wright Brothers "win" aviation at Kitty Hawk in 1903?

No ONE company won aviation.

Not manufacturers. Not airlines.

Aviation was winnerS-take-most.

3/X

Who won railroads? Or maritime shipping?

A century of consolidation in the automotive sector and there are still more than a dozen major manufacturers.

The history of all transportation is winnerS-take-most.

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Within transportation technologies, which example is the self-driving industry most likely to follow?

One is uniquely analogous.

It's not cars. It's elevators.

Why?

Because of the full-time human operators once deemed essential.

But this DIDN'T happen overnight.

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Despite what "experts" tell you, NOTHING in transportation happens overnight.

What seems obvious today often took decades of foundational technical development before culture pivoted around it.

A great explainer of elevator history is LIFTED by Andreas Bernard.

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Anyone trying to predict the winners and timeline for #SelfDriving needs to read this book:

amazon.com/Lifted-Cultura…

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"One look at how...histories of technology are organized…reveals that the way technical innovations become established continues to be portrayed as a chronicle of triumphant progress."

But reality is never that simple.

And progress is never a straight line.

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