Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Simon Wardley Profile picture
@swardley
Jan 27, 2021 • 63 tweets • 18 min read • Read on X
#Reddit invents the trickle down economy with #GameStop and now the talk is all about regulation. Apparently wealth is supposed to only flow one way whilst promises of future breadcrumbs flows the other.
Looking at what's happening - - I suspect that regulation will happen faster than you can say "where's my stimulus check?" ... nothing moves the legal system faster than the wealthy losing their favourite game of "steal from the poor to feed the rich".
"amateurs","upstarts", "frenzy", "vigilante", "herd" versus "professional" ... go on @BBCNews, tell us what you really think.

I'm suprised the article didn't start with "uppity little oiks forget their place and their betters" - bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
X : Hedge funds losing out, fair enough. But ...
Me : That pain the hedge funds are feeling are others gain. Yes, the price will eventually fall but this is not about investment strategy, this is about the crooked game that is the market.
Typo in the title, ftfy ... "The SEC can take steps right now to curb the day-trading frenzy and help safeguard the investing wealthy" - bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
#Reddit might have broken capitalism but I'm sure the SEC will step in soon enough to get things "working" again ... always remember the golden rule - money trickles uphill but shit trickles down. I'm sure they'll have to find a few people to arrest for being uppity oiks.
Oh, the fascinating games going on the side, the companies involved ... Gamestop just keeps giving -
Fabulous -> Investor Chamath Palihapitiya: The GameStop story is pushback against Wall Street establishment - (H/T @TripKrant)
Two of the themes that have come up in my research, from healthcare to defence, from Government to finance have been ...

1. SWARMING (of people and machines)

16. MOBILISATION (of people and resources)



GameStop is just the beginning. So exciting.
I have to say a big thank you to @jacquitaylorfb for opening my eyes to the true extent and power of the change.
There are so many battles coming towards us, so many fascinating spaces e.g. hydrogen (the old guards replacement for oil) vs battery (electric) ... so many players, vested interests, pre-existing capital and sources of inertia.
I've got petroleum companies investing in solar to enable hydrogen to continue using existing capital for distribution with energy companies using solar pushing for batteries to enable more effective balancing on the spot market.
Hmmmm ...
Discord bans the r/WallStreetBets server - theverge.com/2021/1/27/2225… ... oh, I think we're about to launch into Streisand effect territory.
"Recalibrate their positions" ... looking after the big wall street hedge funds in the name of protecting the small retail investor? Bailouts and legislation must surely follow as the game obviously wasn't rigged enough -
... I must try that in my next game of poker ... now that I know your hand, I would like to stop the game and "recalibrate my position" in the pot.
I did like the quote "the robust investment activity wasn’t rational” ... thought I'm not sure if this was talking about #Reddit users or the shorting of 140% of the float of a company by Wall St?

I assume it's talking Wall St because ... well, that's not rational at all.
So, my two questions are

1) "Recalibrate their positions" sounds like a euphemism for "get someone else to pay the bill". So who will they try to get to pay the bill?
2) What has happened is a real threat to existing systems, so they're going to need to destroy the collective around that #Reddit group. Which translates to persuading everyone else that those users were really awful people. So what's the line of attack?
X : Russian hackers?
Me : Really? The whole #Reddit group was some growing active measures plot to destablise the economy ... hmmm ... well, PR firms can work wonders. I'm sure they're busy crafting a narrative and building artificial collectives to pump it.
X : Why destroy the collective?
Me : Imagine if it grows? You could end up with 50 million retail investors each with $5k of capital that are actually talking to each other and creating a shared understanding. That could be terrible, the market might actually start functioning.
X : functioning?
Me : Our market system "as is" runs on power laws primarily controlled by three things - luck, inheritance (starting privilege) and ROCE being proportional to C (i,e. the more you have, the better returns you get). This "open source" hedge fund threatens that.
Excellent article, alas they'll be working on how to fix the game again -> GameStop's dizzying share price rise is game over for the short-sellers - theguardian.com/business/nils-…
X : I don't get why this "collective" is so dangerous.
Me : To the established system, to the crooked game ... you don't understand why the system will try to legislate, destroy and restore itself? Let the #Reddit crowd explain in its own words -
If you looking at GameStop and thinking "this is just a get quick rich scheme" then you're missing the wider motivations for what is happening. This is the public saying "we're sick of this, we've had enough, we're getting organised and we don't care".
Think about this. You're a CEO playing a game of sweat and acquire i.e. purchase a distressed asset to "synergise" (i.e. fire ordinary people) to give share buybacks / divs to keep the price & your bonus up. Wall St loves you but suddenly 50M retail investors don't ...
... and then you discover that they don't care about the $100 or $200 or $300 that they're going to lose, they just care you fired a lot of ordinary people and they want to see you pay.

Oh, we're in for fun times.
Make it larger and well ... a hundred million peoples pocket money will change the fortunes and actions of huge global companies - ... this is why GameStop should be celebrated and supported by Gov. It is amazing.
Forget CSR reports, that lip service paid to doing good ... let this run, let the public express its feelings. You'll get more change, more action at a corporate level from this than any new tickbox.
X : Hate speech?
Me : Not seen details but be warned - PR firms will be amplifying narrative using sockpuppets and artificial collectives to paint this group as anarchists or get rich quick or anything to destablise it. They won't be promoting this -
X : Why do you think this is happening?
Me : Take a huge group of people that have learned lessons on how to act collectively (i.e. MMORPG), give them the tools to do so (reddit / discord), industrialise components in banking (Robinhood) and then give them a reason (2008).
More balanced reporting by @BBCNews, this is encouraging. Maybe the PR firms are losing the battle as well.

"The solution is more transparency on the institutional side, not less access for retail."

-> Amateur investors continue to outwit Wall Street - bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Of course, when I read the quote "This isn't investing, this is gambling" I can't help but translate that in my mind to "This isn't gambling where people I know win but gambling where people I know lose" ... well, that's the point, it's all about certain funds losing.
X : Do you think they will win?
Me : Who are you talking about? The existing structures will try and cut off information, try to stop people sharing and try to close off platforms enabling this. The "free" market is a tool, you need to always ask ... whose need is it serving?
Well, this will now explode and good - ... if anyone couldn't see how rigged the market was beforehand, there is no avoiding it now.

It's about to become Gov (of the people) vs Hedge funds (and a crooked market).
X : Have you seen @tedcruz -
Me : Yep. Battle line is clear, anyone claiming to represent the people is on one side - it doesn't matter whether it's DNC or GOP. To rig a market in favour of institutions that are losing, in public view ... not a good idea.
Streisand effect ... here we go.
Today, we found out that a free market is only "free" when money is flowing in the right direction.
Robinhood hit with class action lawsuit - engadget.com/robinhood-clas…
"People on Wall Street only care about the rules when they’re the ones getting hurt. American workers have known for years the Wall Street system is broken" - independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
I'm surprised Biden has been fairly silent on how retail investors (ordinary public) have been treated and I can't imagine Sequioa Capital is happy given Robinhood's mission to "democratize finance for all" ... I can imagine Vlad is going to face some tough questions.
Back to "Amatuers", "manipulation", "illegal actions", "people stuck at home", "inexperienced investors" ... oh, the big concern for Wall St was the little person? Is that the narrative now? @BBCNews - bbc.co.uk/news/business-… ...
... surely the definition of market manipulation is when you tell one type of investor that you can buy and sell but another type of investor that you can only sell.

The committee hearings should be fascinating -
I see the Reddit group is back up and all the talk seems to be of ... holding. The short interest must be hurting these funds.

It is really important that Government doesn't step in and bailout the funds with taxpayers money. Let it play ...
... however "Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, 33 defended firm's decision to sell users' shares without permission" - dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…

Are we kidding? Respect for property is one of the few universal values. This is way beyond market manipulation, Vlad should be heading to jail.
Not comfortable with the comparison to Trump, there's a world of difference between respect for property and manipulation of the people. But then it's the dailyfail, so I don't expect a great deal of thought to be applied. However, the accusation is astonishing.
Wow, barely covers it ...


This undermines trust entirely. The idea that a party can sell your shares without your permission. I have never seen anything like this.

Those committee hearings on banking should rightly be a bloodbath.
X : Margin account?
Me : I thought RobinHood was all margin accounts. Hence margin calls because you're borrowing. I understand liquidating a position because of an inability to meet a margin call but ... that's not what this seems to say.
If a firm can liquidate your position regardless of your ability to meet a margin call and without permission then the system can suspend ability to buy, drip feed lower prices and liquidate large numbers against their will ... that's not a market, that's a scam.
Good -> SEC’s pledge to clamp down on brokerages that may have “unduly” limited customers’ ability to trade - cnbc.com/2021/01/29/sec…
X : Do you think price will drop?
Me : I cannot speak to money. I can only speak to intent. Some holding GME have been doing so to punish hedge funds who shorted. For those, it's not about getting rich but restitution. This rise of retail investor activism is beyond money ...
... what is interesting is both the rise of this form of collective action plus the regulation questions that seem to have started.

This is something that seems very new -
... and yes, this form of retail investor activism could impact the corporate world particularly on questions like environment and ethics. We've seen this collective form of action and mobilisation emerge in different areas from Masks4All to a shift from WhatsApp to Signal.
X : Have you seen that [loathsome person] agrees with you?
Me : As my grandfather used to tell me - "Even Hitler loved dogs" ... in other words, you sometimes have common ground with people that are truly repulsive. Just remember why they're repulsive and do not support them.
As I said, industrialisation of collaboration tools (Reddit / Twitter) + industrialisation of banking components (RobinHood) + intent + a lot of people used to working with others on WoW ... this line is perfect ->
... and this is just the start.
In MSM, "Redditors set their sights on silver" -
cnn.com/2021/01/31/inv…
and theguardian.com/business/2021/…
and
investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/02/0…
etc etc

Whilst on Reddit / WSB the talk is "Silver Squeeze is a hedge-fund coordinated attack so they can keep fighting the $GME fight"
X : How organised is the whole Reddit thing?
Me : From what I can see, it isn't. It's like a raid, a whole bunch of people turn up with one intent. Anything giving the resemblance of "organisation" emerges out of the collective sharing with each other - think flock of starlings.
X : Flock of starlings?
Me : Yep. There isn't a head bird and layers of management of birds. There are just simple rules the collective shares. It has an intent. When you look at it, you "perceive" structure but that structrure isn't there. It's the same ...
... with the whole Reddit / GME thing. If you want structure / collusion then I'd personally be looking at the hedge funds and all the action being taken against Reddit / GME. That's where I suspect you'll find layers of management co-ordinating action.
X : How do swarms work together or at least appear to work together?
Me : Trust is critical. Which is why any attacks on the Reddit / GME collective will probably focus on that i.e. creating an idea of being a ponzi or nefarious forces in charge or saying people are cashing in.
X : So WallStreetBets is like a murmuration?
Me : Absolutely. We used to think these birds had psyhic powers - phys.org/news/2019-02-s… ... not so. Local interaction, trust between members and basic rules is all you need for complex patterns to emerge ...
... if you're looking for collusion between some management structure then I suspect you're looking in the wrong place.
X : Thoughts on $GME
Me : Fascinating. The rise of the retail investor, the focus on intent, the industrialisation of collaboration tools and banking components, the murmuration of structure ... it's an amazing case study and points to an interesting future.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Simon Wardley

Simon Wardley Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @swardley

Simon Wardley Profile picture
May 9
dX: How do you deal with strategy?
Me: First, we need to answer the Where question, which depends a lot on the what and why.
dX: And?
Me: Ok, some very simple steps ...
Step 1: Visualise your environment. That means getting people to discuss, collaborate & challenge in order to create a "good enough" map of your environment. Should be a couple of hours.
Step 2: Look at what's changing which is competitor moves, your moves & economic patterns.
Step 3: Using the map, determine where you could invest/focus on. You're not making a decision yet, you just want the options. By now, you could have spent four hours on the exercise.
Step 4: Decide where you should invest i.e. look at the options using why & what
Read 8 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
May 5
Those born in the 1890s experienced electrification, telephone, radio, television, nuclear age, penicillin, two world wars, commercial flight, computer age and a moon landing. By the 60s we had AI, VR and 3D printing.

Today, we have the internet / www and have improved stuff.
Is it me, or is human progress slowing down? Great breakthroughs, moments of change, and radical transformations seem like a thing of the past. What we call "revolutions" in industry today seems mostly a marketing slogan.
If you think back to 1957 and the Mark I Perceptron machine that was built at Cornell, then consider the changes in the previous 60 years ... you can't help but think they would be bitterly disappointed with how slow we have progressed in the following 60 years.
Read 17 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Mar 25
No surprises, this was clearly signalled back in 2015.

During this decade has the US disentangled its reliance on China in the semiconductor industry?

I'll let you guess.
We will be entering a phase in which the US high-tech industry (including the military complex) is highly dependent upon China, whilst China is not dependent upon the US.
For those who doubt how clear the intentions were ... go read Made in China, 2025.

China's government made its intentions evident in 2015. The US sabre rattling of sanctions reinforced that purpose whilst the US essentially continued with a misguided "market knows best" policy.
Read 5 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Mar 5
A couple of prompts with Claude 3 creates a Wardley Map for economic sovereignty in the defence space.

Not bad at all -

On par with political, military and defence folk I've spoken to. I'm also finding I can have a reasonable discussion about mapping with Claude 3.onlinewardleymaps.com/#clone:XvHskIi…Image
It's not perfect but it's not bad. There's more I want to interrogate Claude over ... i.e. the link to secure sourcing, the positioning of some components etc. But it's almost good enough that I can start a discussion over strategy and investment.
Anyway, upshot is that Claude 3, from my perspective, has left ChatGPT4 in the dust. Of course, I'll use Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini to cross-compare for now but if I do start building anything more complex then the obvious path is AWS Bedrock which gives me Mistral etc.
Read 15 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 28
dX: What is the single most significant problem facing AI today? Safety? Lack of skills? Inertia?
Me: Overinflated expectations by the business.
dX: You don't think AI will become widespread?
Me: Of course, it will; industrialised components are rapidly becoming cost of doing business. Don't confuse that with expectations. There will be an awful lot of disappointed businesses hoping it would create some advantage.
dX: I don't understand.
Me: Imagine you're just finishing off your plan for how AI will revolutionise your business. Six months for budget approval, one year to build team, 18 months to deliver something ... that's 3 years from now. Any advantage you thought of is long gone.
Read 9 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 16
For those who don't know, I'm working increasingly on and with Glamorous Toolkit - ... I have become fascinated by our willingness to blame humans for problems that are created by our toolsets ...gtoolkit.com
... I saw this last night at Cloud Camp. Apparently, the issues with understanding, explainability and observability in AI are down to humans' inability to deal with complex environments... no, they're not. The problem is with the tools and the type of tools we are creating ...
... we've imported concepts from a physical world where tools are constrained by physics - hence a hammer is a hammer, a drill is a drill - into a world without such constraints. Rather than building contextual tools, we've built constrained tools.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(