if enough people believe in something, it will become manifest.
regardless of institutional forces against that belief.
our ability to communicate and convince others to believe in something is what makes us human, and has allowed us to defy "natural forces" for ~100k years.
recently, the internet has enabled more rapid amplification of novel beliefs, quickly turning the tides against centralized institutions that are the de facto.
masses of individual believers can swarm and overwhelm, creating a new future.
this is playing out in a variety of ways.
TSLA, BTC, Trump, election fraud, GME defied the natural forces that said they should not exist. but enough distributed individuals believed them into existence, defying centralized institutions.
this is neither good nor bad.
simply put, facts are about the past. beliefs can define the future.
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there isn't a lot of transparency or accountability in the vax rollout at federal/state/local level, but the US does have enough vax doses to effectively end the pandemic in 45-60 days. here's why, key metrics to observe, and a reminder on how we can do it...
today, pfizer CEO reported producing 70M vax doses as of 12/31 & another 33M doses since start of the year = 103M doses in total! they're making ~100M per month & have reportedly already handed over ~70M doses to Fed govt. finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-pr…
we have a lot of doses and we don't need to vaccinate everyone to end the pandemic...
fewer people able to transmit the virus (due to infection or vaccination) = fewer new cases/day = cases eventually go to 0 and pandemic ends. goal is reproductive rate (R) < 1.0 ASAP
The Pandemic War is an actual war we must fight and win. the virus is surging, and evolving. we must surge back, and evolve faster than the virus. here's my proposed plan and analysis...
first, in general, perfect has been the enemy of good, that's why we're losing this War. perfect test results. perfect vaccine. perfect treatment (no one can die; follow regular standards of care). we must end perfect and get good enough. it's the only way to win.
plan: 1) eliminate liability 2) source/staff/operate Covid Care Centers 3) rapid tests for everyone 4) immediate antibody therapy for ALL C19+ patients 5) unrestricted high-volume vaccine rollout
BTC has likely created more millionaires (10,000+?) and deca millionaires (1,000+?) than any company or startup in history. these are individual “retail” investors realizing these returns, not institutions, which may drive the Rise of Retail...
1) retail interest in speculative (high-risk/high-reward) investments will continue to sky rocket. BTC’s meteoric USD-denominated value climb sets a new benchmark. everyone is already chasing the next dragon.
2) more speculative public equity is being purchased by retail investors who are increasingly becoming key driver of public offering events (through SPACs, direct listings, and IPOs syndicated to retail investors. instead of a handful of “strong” institutional investors).
the US is administering ~250k covid vaccine doses per day. we prob need to get ~100-150M ppl vaccinated = 200-300M doses = 800-1200 days at current rate. last mile clearly a problem as many doses sitting with states, who have discretion over admin process.
states + hospitals don’t know what to do. this likely becoming key issue in coming days. lots of finger pointing. problem may be paperwork burden, process and procedural overhead. or just complete lack of uniform planning. distribute and hope clearly not a great strategy
math for alternative central planning: 10k care providers give 1 dose every 3 minutes for 8 hours/day = 1.6M/day = 4 months to achieve goal...
amazing paper. 40-60% of population that have NOT had SARS-CoV-2 already have activated T Cells to the virus! likely due to cross-reactivity w/ other "common cold coronaviruses". may explain large % having easy time clearing virus and/or mild/no symptoms. cell.com/action/showPdf…
"... CD4+ T cell responses were detected in 40-60% of unexposed individuals. This may be reflective of some degree of crossreactive, preexisting immunity to SARSCoV-2 in some, but not all, individuals..."
"Whether this immunity is relevant in influencing clinical
outcomes is unknown—and cannot be known without T cell measurements before and after SARSCoV-2 infection of individuals—..."
"re-opening" is not a binary thing. People, Places, and Processes (PPP) define our current and future state. which people can go out, where they can go, what processes are in place when they do go out.
we aren't in a binary lockdown today. in sf, for example, anyone can go to the grocery store or "exercise outside". there are some processes in place (i.e. must wear masks to enter the grocery store; but not req'd to do temp checking on entry). our "lockdown" is already nuanced.
thus, it's not ideal to talk abt binary states. and it's non-sensical to believe we can "crush" the virus. even if # infected ppl in US fell to 50 we'd be where we were early March & infected would expand as before w/o a change in PPP. you can't just "return to normal"