Thread by @NikMastrantonas

Our paper about large-scale atmospheric flow patterns and extreme precipitation events over the Mediterranean is now available in the Int. J. Climatology #RMetSJournals #OpenAccess #OpenScience
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jo…
Here follows a small thread about the main findings:

We analyzed the daily weather patterns over the Mediterranean and grouped them based on their variability in the lower and middle troposphere. We derived 9 patterns that represent distinct synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions over the area.

These patterns are related to the preferential occurrence of extreme precipitation over different subregions. Especially for the coast and highlands, the probability of extremes in the most relevant pattern is over 4x higher than the nominal probabilities .

There is also a strong spatiotemporal connection of extreme events, with orography being a key modulator. This is demonstrated in the case of west-central Italy, where over 30% of extremes happen on the same day with extremes over Croatia/Montenegro -> Apennine Mountains

Why are these findings significant?

Because we can use this information to predict extreme precipitation at sub-seasonal scales (10+ days lead time ). This point will be analyzed in a future study.

If you are interested in using similar methods for the same/other parts of the world, or you want to reproduce the analysis/figures of this work, all scripts are available at 👇
github.com/ecmwf-lab/med-…

#OpenScience #github