My understanding of AstraZeneca's EU doses:
- contract signed in August
- EU expected over 100 mln doses delivered by end-March, possibly 120 mln
- in early Dec, AZ revised down to 80 mln
- on Jan 22, AZ revised to 31 mln
- distributed proportionally: eg Ireland's share is ~1.1%
Meanwhile, on Jan 13, AstraZeneca chief Tom Keith-Roach told a UK parliament hearing it was scaling up vaccine deliveries "very rapidly" and by mid-Feb would be able to deliver two million doses to the UK every week.
Up to that point, 1.1 mln doses had been delivered to UK.
AZ and UK govt have represented UK doses as made in UK, and visa versa for EU.
However, on December 8, the UK's Vaccine Taskforce manufacturing lead Ian McCubbin told reporters that
"The initial supply... actually comes from the Netherlands and Germany."
reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
The EU's understanding of its contract is: it allocated €336 million in funding to AstraZeneca, and the deal was that the company would pre-produce doses, to be ready as soon as approval was granted (probably tomorrow).
The contract specified four factories, two in UK, two in EU
Dec 23: AstraZeneca applies for approval in the UK
Dec 30: AstraZeneca vaccine granted emergency approval in UK
Jan 12: AstraZeneca applies for approval in EU
Expected Jan 29: European Medicines Agency decision on conditional marketing approval (normal route, not emergency)
Contracts:
UK signed contract with AZ in May for 100 million doses. In November, govt says 40 mln expected by end-March; company in Dec says merely "millions".
EU signed contract with AZ for 300 mln doses, with option for extra 100 mln. Until Friday, expected 80 mln by end-March. ImageImage
An old lesson still not learned by UK government and others: Brussels can hear what you say publicly in Britain.
Sad background to all this:
The Oxford researchers who developed the vaccine said their know-how would be granted in "non-exclusive, royalty-free licences" during the pandemic.
Ultimately an exclusive contract with AZ was signed innovation.ox.ac.uk/technologies-a…
astrazeneca.com/media-centre/p…
South Africa and India led a call supported by human rights groups and @MSF for patents on Covid-19 medicines to be waived for the duration of the pandemic to allow for the widest possible production. thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Disparity in vaccines as of last week according to @WHO:
Rich countries: 39 million doses
Poor countries: 25 doses (Russia's Sputnik vaccine, given in Guinea)
WHO has called on rich countries not to hoard vaccines, as the pandemic will drag on longer for all without sharing doses
Key information is obscured by the fact the contract is confidential and we have only rival claims by AZ and EU about it.
EU spokesman today: "We have written to the company informing them of our intention of publishing the contract and this is now under discussion with them."
"Production capacity" was "one of the selection criteria" for what vaccines the EU helped to fund, in exchange for early delivery agreements, according to EU spokesman.
"Therefore plants are listed" in the contract: 2 in UK, 2 in EU.
EMA is expected to decide on AstraZeneca tomorrow, would be a surprise if it wasn't authorised. A relatively small number of older people took part in its trial. EMA hasn't ruled out authorising just for younger groups but we won't know until they announce
There's the contract now, lawyers can have a look ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

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More from @NaomiOhReally

30 Jan
Thread on something really important.
At the outset of the pandemic, @DrMikeRyan called on us to "break the chains of transmission".
We haven't. The chains now number over 100,000,000 people.
Why? A central measure is often overlooked: isolating those exposed to the virus. Image
The above graph by @Paul5cott compares policy measures around the world on isolation and quarantine.
A lot of focus has been on reducing the random seeding of new chains of transmission through travel.
That's important - but only one part of containing Covid-19 spread.
It sounds simple: if everyone who currently has the virus right now could be kept separate from other people for about two weeks, infections would drop to zero. Pandemic over.
But individuals cannot achieve it alone. Isolation only works within a system of support and enforcement
Read 14 tweets
29 Jan
Taoiseach Micheál Martin has held discussions with Ursula von der Leyen amid deep unhappiness in the Irish government at the use of Article 16 -- seen as "completely unnecessary" with "explosive political implications" according to a government source
irishtimes.com/news/health/eu…
UK government spokesman says Michael Gove has been in touch with EU Commission's Maros Sefcovic and that the British government is now "carefully considering next steps".
Hours since its publication, the European Commission's vaccine export control regulation has been unpublished from its website ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
27 Jan
The EU has asked AstraZeneca to make the contract public as it disagrees with the interpretation put forward by CEO Pascal Soriot, according to an official, who suggests this could be a breach of the contract confidentiality the company had insisted on.
The EU believes there are stocks of vaccines produced in Europe, that it wants to be delivered to the EU to fulfil its contract.
The factory that has an issue is not the most vital to supply, according to official.
"We are trying to get the vaccines that are somewhere in Europe."
The idea that there are separate supply chains for the UK is not reflected in the contract, according to official.
Two factories located in the UK are the primary ones slated for EU supply, followed by one in Belgium (which has a problem) and one in Germany, official says.
Read 5 tweets
26 Jan
EMA head Emer Cooke responds to questions about AstraZeneca's trial data, and the fact that there were a relatively small % of older people in the trial:
"The studies that were done that have been included in the file so far have a very small quantity of elderly populations..."
"This is what is being discussed in the media atm
Our scientific committee is looking at the totality of the data to see what that data means in terms of the populations that were studied and what could reasonably be expected in populations that maybe have not been studied yet."
"This is a normal process in relation to any vaccines. We have to look at the data that’s there, look at the science behind it, and what we can expect that data to mean."
Read 7 tweets
24 Jan
A very interesting area. I have heard from both @WHO and @NICU_doc_salone that what's vital isn't punitive enforcement but SUPPORT for quarantine.
The NZ and Aus legislation on mandatory self-isolation and quarantine are here...
legislation.govt.nz/regulation/pub…
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…
If you only have a few infections, you can really put resources into making sure they don't spread further.
In Australia, if you have to self-isolate you are handed an official order that explains exactly what you can and can't do... health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/fac…
Getting an official order on paper in itself is enough to get compliance from the vast majority of people, @NICU_doc_salone told me.
The order also notes that if you break the rules, the maximum penalty is a $11,000+ fine and six months in prison... health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/fac…"
Read 7 tweets
9 Jan
How is international media reporting Ireland's dramatic Covid-19 surge that has taken it from one of the lightest-affected in Europe to a global hotspot in a matter of weeks?
Always interesting to see an international perspective.
A press review:
"Ireland is the country in the world where the epidemic is spreading the fastest, ahead of the Czechia and the United Kingdom," reports Belgium's @RTBFinfo rtbf.be/info/societe/d…
"It must be said that the Irish situation is in fact much more serious: if in the United Kingdom, infections have increased by 50% in one week, in Ireland, they have quadrupled!" @RTBFinfo adds
Read 24 tweets

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