Thread by @thomasafine

This is what I've believed too for a while. It's clear that there were efforts prior to this to promote Trump, with Rykov and Project Lakhta both active throughout 2015.

https://twitter.com/gregolear/status/1354590963562401799

It's hard to know if Rykov and the people bankrolling him and Project Lakhta were true believers, or if they just thought they were creating general disruption, but I still tend to agree that there wasn't a general consensus of viability until early 2016.

Note also that Maria Butina made statements about Trump in 2015. Again, we don't know if it was primarily disruptive. I always believed Butina's operation had everything to do with NRA and Congress, and little to do with Trump, except when convenient because of her placement.

We also have the Agalarovs working Trump since early 2013 (well before Miss Universe). We have Alferova saying in early 2014 that he'd make a great President.

The point of all of this is that it's important to differentiate between significant Russian interest in Trump and serious interest in him as a viable candidate.

All the hacking efforts occurred after late winter, early spring 2016.

I'd actually divide Russian interest into three distinct periods:
1980s through 2012 - casual interest in random loudmouth rich American
2013-2015 - accelerated interest in manipulating his presidential run for general chaos
2016 onward - realization that they could install him.