$GME thread that hopefully brings light and not heat. Lots of FUD (in both directions) out there. I try and be aware of it, but I think it is more important to understand what's really happening. @alphatrends AVWAPS don't lie. I have been trading this since October.
Let's begin
We gapped up from $20 to mid $30's Jan 13th at the Open. I thought it was the beginning of the squeeze I had been waiting for since SI was at 102% iirc. That first VWAP is set to that Gap Up BO. Look at how well price AND VOLUME respected the gap.
For an entire week, that held. That's when I thought, "Hmm. Usually on a SS squeeze its a quick violent rise and then you get some type of collapse." That didn't happen. Also SI didn't decline. Then I looked at @CheddarFlow dark pool prints
Another Hmm. If this was a bunch of kidz getting lulz, then they had conned some large institutions to be in on the game. Possible, but not likely.
Continuing... last Friday, price started gapping up ABOVE the BO VWAP. Look at the @TrendSpider chart again.
This was INCREDIBLY BULLISH on top of the already bullish Gap and hold. Was this really due to a bunch of tweens WSB spending stimulus money? Search from:paulburrer gme dark pool to see what I mean.
Now when I look at each days VWAP since Jan 13th, I see support is being found at the previous days VWAP. Don't usually see that at the top of a SS. I did see lots of top callers last night on Twitter.
I know two things:
1. $GME WILL TOP 2. I won't know it until it has happened.
I still have 2 calls left to manage. I am not buying any as the derivative system is functionally broken (at least in this stock).
I *MIGHT* buy common as the squeeze STILL HASN'T HAPPENED. That's right. There is more Short Interest now than there was when it gapped up from $20 to mid $30's. Shorting $GME (IMO) is from a R/R perspective not worth it.
I can make the case that going long in anticipation of the SS might be worth it.
$GME was taken down to the highest high AVWAP. I had my buy set to the BO VWAP. Didn't get filled. Todays will be set to yesterday's low AVWAP. ~$225 ish.
Darkpool buys reported yesterday over $600M. I think WSB *was* a fig covering larger players that were taking the shorts out and shooting them. The squeeze is still in play as more shorts appear to be coming in to replace those that have been destroyed.
Still have my 2 calls. I have one set to yesterdays high sell of $42,600. I paid $85 3 weeks ago.
Truly Remarkable.
So Monday we find out how many retail $GME call holders that got assigned have the $ to take delivery. I am seeing zip, zero, nada in the price action that tells me to exit my last 4/16 $40 Calls. If an important AVWAP is lost, I’ll re evaluate. Alerts set. Emotion out.
Oh and if you didn’t see it, $GME put in a IHS on the 65M chart.
$GME $187.12 is the level I am waiting for. Will see how it responds & act according to plan
The cool thing about this $GME price action is you can see on 1/28, they tried to bull rush the longs and scare em into selling at the open.
Buyers that respect the AVWAP stepped in and kicked the shorts teeth in (again). Today, they waited till the close. Will buyers step up?
Nibbled $GME @ $190
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You #memeStonks#stonks people, Be cautious of chop. The markets are at an inflection point this week.
*NO ONE* knows what direction they will go. Not even Portnoy.
Here is one chart I am watching.
This is the Russell 2000 Ishares ETF. Basically all the small caps that trade in the US (at least the ones included in the index).
That line on this chart shows you how at the beginning of the year, we broke above the YTD AVWAP for the index.
Come again?
YTD = Year to Date
AVWAP = Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price.
But then, last week we started testing it. And on Friday we closed below it. That meant that *on average* everyone who bought the index this year was under water.