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Unlike many other markets not many track PA patterns in #smallcaps or specific behaviors. Mostly due to lack of intraday candles or classic chart patterns. But that doesn't mean there aren't any one just has to look outside of box from traditional chart patterns.
#trading
For example, give #crypto guy a drawing board and chart and he'll draw you next Mona Lisa on chart. It's mostly due to abundance of data /candles which makes everyone see what they want to. In scarce environment of smallcaps you have to be more defined as behavior is constricted.
This means that due to time constraint also the MMs will be more forced to use patterns and techniques that also address this problem, not just chart drawers or pattern seekers themselves. It's why there is more liquidity traps in this market on avg due to limited exit opps.
Read 4 tweets
Fbo/clearout distance is the price that they swipe above HOD. Often same ticker will have similar pattern of distance and can be key guide for short entry accuracy, if it already swiped once with fbo and reject. Important micro behavior to track.
#smallcaps
Rough guide is in strong cycle that distance can be large and very open-ended. In weaker cycles and flows it will be more limited. Previous past 10 tickers will also be key guide to tell you current avg cent distance of fbo move to help define that better so track it closely.
Typically before each new fbo HOD swipe, MMs will consolidate price minimum 15 minutes under it. The weaker the flows the longer, and vice versa if stronger. That helps to give you readiness on when it might happen very roughly plus minus 10 min usually.
Read 5 tweets
Good to see #Metgasco raising $5m to support drilling of Cervantes and the Vali gas field development. Exciting times ahead. $mel #mel #ASX #smallcaps
“The terms of the placement were: an issue price of 2.6c/share. Options are to be issued to placement participants on a 1 for 3 basis, with a strike price of 4.5c, expiring 10 December 2024, with issuance of options subject to shareholder approval.” #mel $mel
“Funds from the Placement and will be used to fund Metgasco’s Cervantes#1 oil well (targeting P50 resource of 15.3MMbls gross/4.6 MMbls net) and to strengthen corporate balance sheet for ongoing project development and new business initiatives.” #mel $mel
Read 4 tweets
ADVENTEZ GROUP 💥
Super optimistic abt Saroj Poddar group (Adventez)companies!!
Dynamic man who brought
♦️#Gillette in India in 80s
(Indian Shaving products merged)
♦️#Duracell Battery USA
♦️#Hettich Germany JV 2000
Saroj Poddar inherited Chambal (18% stake)
Zuari Agro
Gobind sugar(zuariGlobal) Texmaco Engi
Birla house
From KK Birla(Father in Law)

Group was in problem
A)Huge 3600cr were receivable from Govt(2017)as fertilizer subsidies(zuari agro) that led them into financial crisis
B)Supported Vijaya Mallaya-to defend Deepak fertilizers taking over Mangalore chemicals-fertilizers, eventually #zuariagro got 55% holding after long takeover battle with Deepak Fert ( 2014)
(That drained cash resources)

C)Dubai real-estate venture failed
Read 8 tweets
THREAD: A picture is worth a thousand words. Let's look at a few #ETF graphs & see if we can make some sense of the current market environment.

What a year it's been for #Oil & #Energy! Sharing only positive YTD #MSCI #Sector performance with #Financials.

$IXC $IXG
2/15

#EmergingMarkets #ETF seriously lagging #DevelopedMarkets ETF, mostly due to disinvestment from #China.

#SouthAfrica might need a lot of catch up, but $EZA 1YR performance in USD (+9.9%) is still ahead of $EEM (-11.3%)

$URTH
3/15

#Global #Value #stocks (#ETF) recently enjoyed short-term recovery, but still got some serious catch-up to do over the longer term.

$IWVL
Read 16 tweets
Good Morning!

If youve checked out my blog then you know I use What I call 'The neutral Strategy for ETF's.

I'm still very intrigued by the strength of $IWM.

Notice the Blueprint I put together on 9/26 and the results
Price pushed into T2 to the upside and rejected and then dropped to lower T1 and supported. Remember levels to the upside are resistance and levels to downside are support. At the end of the week price closed right in the neutral and is getting very tight.
From a #Fibonacci perspective you can see price is still below the 618, the golden fib. Why is this a big deal? A move above the 618 signals a break in trend of the measured range.

Bulls need above 224.41 and a close on the weekly above this would be instrumental
Read 5 tweets
#Global #ETF (thread): 26 Aug 2021

- 2020 worst perf #sectors making still leading in 2021 $IXG $IXC

- This is helping #oil producing countries with #SaudiArabia & #UAE in top5 #Country ETF YTD performers in USD $KSA $UAE

- #SouthAfrica $EZA still in top30 YTD performers
2/12

#EmergingMarkets #ETF seriously lagging #DevelopedMarkets ETF, mostly due to disinvestment from #China.

#SouthAfrica might need a lot of catch up, but $EZA YTD performance in USD (+8.2%) is still ahead of $EEM (-0.95%)
3/12

#Global #Value #stocks enjoyed short-term recovery to the end of April, but since then, $IWVL #ETF really struggled against #Quality & #Momentum. Over 1yr period it is however still the best-performing #factor, very much in its recovery phase.
Read 13 tweets
The shifts between organic (market) and unorganic ( #rigged) behavior is key tell for likely push coming next. You can never know how big, but in majority of cases it is higher than the price where the shift takes place. Critical concept to follow.
#smallcaps
In many cases before they squeeze, first they absorb (to minimize their risk). That key absorbing with unorganic micro-clues can give you insight ahead on likely squeeze. However one thing you don't ever know for sure, are they gonna insta pull it soon after.
Organic moves are smooth and trendy directionally. Unorganic action is hectic, swipey and all over the place. Observe those differences to get the read on the shift. Market is usually not able to create hectic micro action (due to timing) while single player can.
Read 3 tweets
#Charts Fans, lets do this!
Thread time!

$SPY $QQQ $DIA $TRAN $IWM $SOX $IGV $XLF $XLI $JETS $GLD $XLE #Yield #McClellan #Insiders #PanicEuphoria

#stockCharts
$DIA #DJIA has been absolutely buzzing this year, Value vs Growth continues to sky rocket as Value was beaten down pretty hard during pandemic and growth rose exponentially, so far the story of 2021 has been Value! This is very very bulish still, lets see how far this extends!
$SPY $SPX

Spy continues to ride this channel and holding the bottom channel, very range bound so far, lets see if it takes off and breaks the upper channel, target 420 in 6-8 weeks
Read 22 tweets
(1/n) The #inflation data just keeps coming in hot. Today it was the #Markit #PMIs that showed input prices rising to a record...by a long shot.
(2/n) Earlier in the week it was the core PPI data, which came in at 2%, fully twice the #WallSt estimates.
(3/n) On Monday the #Fed's Empire State manufacturing survey showed prices paid at the highest level in 10 years.
Read 8 tweets
$IWM #smallcaps #RTY

You #memeStonks #stonks people, Be cautious of chop. The markets are at an inflection point this week.

*NO ONE* knows what direction they will go. Not even Portnoy.

Here is one chart I am watching.
This is the Russell 2000 Ishares ETF. Basically all the small caps that trade in the US (at least the ones included in the index).

That line on this chart shows you how at the beginning of the year, we broke above the YTD AVWAP for the index.
Come again?
YTD = Year to Date
AVWAP = Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price.

But then, last week we started testing it. And on Friday we closed below it. That meant that *on average* everyone who bought the index this year was under water.

NO BUENO!
Read 5 tweets
R SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL #Thread

#smallcap #stock

📌Presenting my study for educational purpose 👇

Will keep adding points to this #thread so you may bookmark & re-visit as you like !

1 Image
R Systems International incorporated in 1993 as a consulting firm in California, US.
Started its India operations in 1997 in Noida.

Per latest AR Dec19
Currently provide services in 40+ Countries for 200+ Active Clients.
7 - $3 Million Clients
26 - $1 Million Clients

2
📌Service & Solutions Offerings

3 ImageImage
Read 47 tweets
The below image is from Jeroen Blokland.

This doesn't necessarily imply a causation (the fit isn't that tight anyway) but it does prompt one to think about what happens when the central banks take the punch bowl away.

You can also derive from there that, as we know, .. Image
developed-market indices have divorced from the reality of their economies (as the image involves central bank balance sheets as a % of GDP).

This cannot occur indefinitely: the logical conclusion is that as we approach size infinity, large-cap index growth tends towards..
..broader economic growth.

We are, of course, likely nowhere near this point but the logical conclusion seems to be that small-cap stocks (and even mid-caps) are a much better hope of achieving above market returns than the currently popular US blue chips like $TSLA and $PLTR.
Read 7 tweets
#TweetStorm - Example of how punting happened due to #SmallcapRules and how illiquid and #lowfloat some #smallcaps are. #SheelaFoams. This company came at the 251st number on the categorization of #Stocks by SEBI - Link -bit.ly/3klimsY Btw new list would come in January
Yesterday - #NSE #Volumes up to 1.29 lakhs against 20-30k average with 45% delivery volumes. Deliverable qty also 2x-4x the average. Today it has traded only 23703 shares and 37% delivery volumes. Apart from recent volumes it has even traded only a few 1000 shares often. Image
Company is like a #PrivateEquity investment for #MFs. It is like "Iski Topi Uske Sar" ( Will keep shifting Hands.). Promoters =75%. #MutualFunds= 19.68% #FIIs=2.81% #Insurance+AIF=.45 Sum Total = 97.96%. Wow 2% available Float !! 10 lakh shares or 150 cr value on 7000 cr mkt cap
Read 3 tweets
A quick take on new #SEBI Norms. 1/NLike it was mentioned yesterday - Lot of things can happen. 1) A Multi-Cap Fund may merge itself with a Large & Midcap Fund or any other category. 2) Outflows from Multi-Cap Funds to #LargeCaps which reduces the theoretical buying in #smallcaps
2/N 3) Close the Fund which may not be viable. Nobody likes losing AUM. 4) Another creative Solution or Loop. The Fact is #Smallcaps cannot digest 5000 Cr of Liquidity Gush, forget about 27000 cr. But all the solutions will lead to AUM leakage which AMCs may not like !!
N/N The LargeCap Polarization got accelerated by the categorization of Stocks by SEBI. Now that stance is shifting and that is where a lot of MFs will slowly start re-aligning to Smallcaps selectively. Bottomline -Do not go rush buy or sell stocks coz of the Circular!
Read 4 tweets
SEBI opens a restaurant

You order a Multi-cap fund
your get
1/4th large cap
1/4th mid cap
1/4th small call
1/4th chefs or Fund mangers choice!

#SEBI #mutualfunds #smallcaps #midcap #largecaps

😂
This will lead to selling in large caps
and huge buys in small caps
and also significant inflows in mid caps

From Bihag Parikh
#SEBI #mutualfunds #smallcaps #midcap #largecaps Image
As per AMFI and SEBI for mutual fun investment

large caps: top 100 companies in terms of market
(generally align with Nifty 50+ Next 50)

mid-caps: 101st to 250th companies

small caps: 251st onwards

How small are smallcaps?
RIL market cap > 2x of all small caps in India!!
Read 3 tweets
#TweetStorm - A Quick take on the new #SEBI circular. 1) The new rule states that a Multicap Fund needs to have 25% in #LargeCaps, 25% in #Midcaps. 25% in #Smallcaps. This needs to be aligned before January 2021.
Data Source - MoneyControl 2) The Total AUM of the Multi-Cap Funds is 1.53 lakh crores. 25% allocation to #Smallcap =38300 crores. Current Allocation= 11240 Crores. Potential Buying or Difference to be Aligned = 27062 crores.
3) Why is everyone going mad about it in #Whatsapp and #Twitter. Total Market Cap of 251st to 500th Company is 9 lakh crores. 27000 Cr implies 3% of Equity. In many of smallcaps promoters own 50-75%. That's like 10% of float buying theoretically. Source - AMFI.
Read 5 tweets
« Même l’investisseur intelligent aura sans doute besoin d’une force considérable pour ne pas tomber dans le piège de suivre la foule. » B.Graham

Explication des mécaniques de marché qui occasionnent des opportunités uniques en cas de crise #Thread #Coronavirus
1. L’effet #grégaire pousse dans un premier temps certains opérateurs, par anxiété, à vendre quoi qu’il en coûte des positions.
2. Les investisseurs retirent leurs avoirs des fonds dans lesquels ils sont exposés afin de protéger leurs patrimoines. Cette #décollecte amène les gérants à céder leurs titres pour rembourser les investisseurs.
Read 10 tweets
#TweetStorm
In 2015-2017 A lot of people wanted to become Full Time #Investors via #Smallcaps seeing #Multibaggers shown by #Advisers #Investors. In 2018-2019 a lot of people want to become Full Time #Traders via #OptionWriting, #Futures seeing #M2M shown by #Trainers #Traders
We used to earlier get influenced by people succeeding in your #social circle where you would know people over the years but now we get influenced by #SocialMedia successes that may or may not be true. #Tweetstorm on questions on approach to #FullTime #Trading
In 2018 we got a crash in #Smallcaps and #portfolios are down 10-50%. This will test out people who became #fulltime #investors without thinking or preparation. Now in 2019 if you want to be a #FullTime #Trader this #tweetstorm gives you only questions to help you think!.
Read 17 tweets
The #divergence of #Smallcaps #Midcaps and Broader Markets with #Nifty50 is now even being seen in #Nifty50 stocks with the Top 10 of #Nifty50. Top 10 of #Nifty50 weight is 60.26% of #Nifty50 and Top 20 is 77.33%.
The top 2 stocks #HDFCBank and #Reliance have a weight of 20% in #Nifty50. The top 5 stocks have a weight of 39.39%. Banking and Financials sector has a weight of almost 38%. The last 27 stocks in #Nifty50 have a weight of less than 1%.
The last time we saw such concentration for Top 10/20 stocks in #Nifty50 was in in June 2009 ( when it changed to free float ) and in June-August 2013. How long can this continue? All I can say is - In a year or two we may think very differently about the next 3 months. Image
Read 3 tweets

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