1) I have a lot of shitposts that are maybe half clever.
But I think this is what I learned the most writing:
But I think this is what I learned the most writing:
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1300964102005694464
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
3) Is ftx.com/trade/GME/USD worth a $30b market cap?
4) I mean, in some sense, "fuck no".
Try googling "GME earnings" and you'll realize why it's P/E ratio isn't usually listed.
Try googling "GME earnings" and you'll realize why it's P/E ratio isn't usually listed.
5) But, in another sense, it is: you can sell GME, right now, for $462 per share. That implies a market cap over $30b.
So who's right?
So who's right?
6) When people talk about cryptocurrencies, they generally don't talk about fully diluted valuations; they talk about circulating.
The reason, basically: that's a better representation of what something has actually raised.
The reason, basically: that's a better representation of what something has actually raised.
7) This can be generalized, though: if you buy $1 of something, it's market cap probably increased by more than $1.
Don't believe me? Try buying $1b of BTC. Do you think it's price will increase by more or less than, uh... 0.11%?
Don't believe me? Try buying $1b of BTC. Do you think it's price will increase by more or less than, uh... 0.11%?
8) And that's not just in crypto. If you buy $1B of the S&P500, you'd better expect price to increase by more than 1b/30T = 0.003%.
This is because, when you buy something, *everyone*'s share prices increase, not just the people you're buying from.
Market cap go brrrrrr.
This is because, when you buy something, *everyone*'s share prices increase, not just the people you're buying from.
Market cap go brrrrrr.
9) So does that mean it's fake?
Not necessarily!
People have said that, many times: about BTC, and TSLA, and internet companies, and gold. They're often wrong.
Not necessarily!
People have said that, many times: about BTC, and TSLA, and internet companies, and gold. They're often wrong.
10) It still matters that those other shares increased, *and the holders chose not to sell*. And people chose to buy anyway.
The buyers and the holders and the sellers met, and agreed that TSLA was worth $822 per share.
And @elonmusk chose not to sell (too much, I guess!).
The buyers and the holders and the sellers met, and agreed that TSLA was worth $822 per share.
And @elonmusk chose not to sell (too much, I guess!).
11) So in some sense the world still does think that's really what the asset is worth, even if it hasn't really bought $800B of TSLA yet.
Because the world, and @elonmusk, and the buyers, and the sellers, and the VC firms, all agree, I guess:
That TSLA is more than its earnings
Because the world, and @elonmusk, and the buyers, and the sellers, and the VC firms, all agree, I guess:
That TSLA is more than its earnings
12) Because they see where it was, and where it is, and where it might be. In 15 years, will 20% of all cars be TSLA? How confident are you that the answer is 'no'?
13) So, ok, this has happeend before, but not like _this_. Not like @wsbmod.
What changed?
Social media. Love it or hate it, it's changed the world.
What changed?
Social media. Love it or hate it, it's changed the world.
14) See, before, if a few friends decided to buy GME, they'd buy $3k, and pay a 1% spread.
Then the internet came, and those 3 people became 10,000 people.
So they bought $10m, and it went up 5%. And then hedge funds sold because it was "rich", and it went back down.
Then the internet came, and those 3 people became 10,000 people.
So they bought $10m, and it went up 5%. And then hedge funds sold because it was "rich", and it went back down.
15) But now there's social media, and @wsbmod has 400k followers in a day.
And so now it's not a few friends, or ten thousand message board readers.
Now 1m people, together, decide to buy GME. And together they buy $1b.
And so now it's not a few friends, or ten thousand message board readers.
Now 1m people, together, decide to buy GME. And together they buy $1b.
16) And when they buy $1b, GME goes up in market cap by $10b.
And then something new happens.
For the first time, the masses, together, sometimes add up to a larger trade than the hedge funds.
And so if the hedge funds short... Maybe GME goes up anyway.
And then something new happens.
For the first time, the masses, together, sometimes add up to a larger trade than the hedge funds.
And so if the hedge funds short... Maybe GME goes up anyway.
17) And then there are the cascade effects: the liquidations and short squeezes and press and follow-on.
And so GME goes up more.
And so GME goes up more.
18) And, of course, @elonmusk realized this first.
Because he's popular enough--and his vision is compelling enough--that when _he_ fought for his company, it grew $800B.
Because he's popular enough--and his vision is compelling enough--that when _he_ fought for his company, it grew $800B.
19) And, of course, there's Bakkt, a company with no revenue or users (but a healthy dose of expenses!), looking towards a $3b+ listing.
(If that gets you $3b, imagine what actual volume and revenue and profit gets you!)
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1348668218370506754
(If that gets you $3b, imagine what actual volume and revenue and profit gets you!)
20) And, again, none of this says who's right, or who's wrong.
Because, in the end, some things have direct physical value (or revenue, or something like that).
To some extent--to a very real extent--everything else is what we all make of it.
Because, in the end, some things have direct physical value (or revenue, or something like that).
To some extent--to a very real extent--everything else is what we all make of it.
21) Most value in the world is born from and sustained by our collective imagination.
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1300964102005694464
22) So I don't know if these will go up or down. Maybe they're a bubble; maybe they're a rocket ship. Maybe they've found a new in-between. They're volatile and risky, and you should use your best judgement.
Maybe you should go long, maybe short, and maybe neither.
Maybe you should go long, maybe short, and maybe neither.
23) Right now, on Robinhood, you can no longer buy GME; you can only sell.
Maybe you gotta do what you gotta do, but that's not what we aim for.
FTX was built by traders, for traders. And we want to give you the products you want.
Maybe you gotta do what you gotta do, but that's not what we aim for.
FTX was built by traders, for traders. And we want to give you the products you want.
24) So whether you're buying or selling or just a neutral observer, have at it.
ftx.com/trade/WSB-0326
ftx.com/trade/WSB-0326
25) And stay tuned.
26) Oh, and:
Ref code “WSB15”: get 15% off fees this week for stocks, and 100% will be donated to @barstoolfund. And btw @stoolpresidente, you can trade 24/7 and buy buttons are never disabled. @wsbmod
ftx.com/trade/GME/USD
ftx.com/trade/AMC/USD
ftx.com/trade/WSB-0326
Ref code “WSB15”: get 15% off fees this week for stocks, and 100% will be donated to @barstoolfund. And btw @stoolpresidente, you can trade 24/7 and buy buttons are never disabled. @wsbmod
ftx.com/trade/GME/USD
ftx.com/trade/AMC/USD
ftx.com/trade/WSB-0326
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
