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Josh Barro Profile picture
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28 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Whoa. Were we supposed to get Novavax data this soon?
Novavax says 15000 person UK trial showed 89+% effectiveness for its vaccine.
cnbc.com/2021/01/28/cov…
Worse results on a smaller sample in South Africa though. nytimes.com/2021/01/28/hea…
The confidence interval around that effectiveness in SA is super wide because of the small sample —49% effective with 95% CI from 6% to 73%. (60% effective with CI 20-80 in HIV-negative participants.) ir.novavax.com/node/15506/pdf

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More from @jbarro

Josh Barro Profile picture
30 Jan
Are flowers cheaper because of the pandemic? Whole Foods is selling pretty nice bouquets for $5-10.
Also, 10 tulips for $6.30, or 24 roses for $19.99 Image
People keep saying “no demand for weddings” and I’m sure that’s a key part of it but lots of flowers sort of go in the background in commercial settings — restaurants, offices, hotels — and I bet that’s way down too. Also fewer occasions for people to gift flowers.
Read 8 tweets
Josh Barro Profile picture
29 Jan
Elected officials should stop praising risky trades by ordinary investors as a good way to make money.
Deleted, but here it was: Image
See also here — a congressman! spreading the idea that They are trying to stop you from speculating on stocks because you might make too much money Image
Read 4 tweets
Josh Barro Profile picture
29 Jan
This is a fundamental misunderstanding, as @matt_levine explained a couple times in his newsletter last week. When the short interest grows, so necessarily does the long interest, because *two* investors are long any share that is sold short.
A higher short interest puts the short sellers at more risk, for sure, but there’s nothing special about the line where you go over 100% of the shares outstanding.
Adam wants to sell short, so he borrows a share from Bob to sell to Christine. Now Bob and Christine are both long the same share. When Bob is squeezed and has to exit his short position, maybe he buys from Christine. That still leaves Bob long.
Read 4 tweets
Josh Barro Profile picture
12 Jan
My price target for Bitcoin has been $0 for years and obviously I've been proved wrong over and over, but I'm still right about the larger truth, which is that Bitcoin is stupid. nytimes.com/2021/01/12/tec…
"Of the existing 18.5 million Bitcoin, around 20 percent — currently worth around $140 billion — appear to be in lost or otherwise stranded wallets, according to the cryptocurrency data firm Chainalysis." lol what a cool asset class
This doesn't happen to mutual funds!
Read 6 tweets
Josh Barro Profile picture
10 Jan
In Arizona and to a lesser extent Georgia, the GOP seems intent on accelerating the blue trend in the state instead of slowing it.
This may be a "nothing succeeds like success" thing? In states getting more red (like Ohio) the GOP seems to be actually trying to win by more.
Florida being the other key example. Republicans have actually tried to win Hispanic votes and it paid off.
Read 7 tweets
Josh Barro Profile picture
9 Jan
Since we're talking about Olive Garden, it's a good opportunity to revisit that private equity powerpoint deck from 2014, which said things like Olive Garden loses $5 million a year because it wastes so many breadsticks. businessinsider.com/starboard-tran…
People slag Wall Street, but "if you don't give people so many goddamn breadsticks they didn't ask for, maybe they'll be more likely to order dessert" is a good insight.
They also criticized Olive Garden for overpaying for asparagus due to imposing "tight length and spear specs" on suppliers and for using custom-size straws.
Read 4 tweets

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