Thread by @scotfoodjames

BREXIT; a 🧵 at the end of week 4.
Spoiler alert: it’s not good.
➡️It’s turns out that UKGovt saying things are getting better or that it’s “teething problems” doesn’t make it so.
➡️There is much more trouble ahead.
➡️The worrying parallels between Brexit and Covid responses.

Four reasons things will worsen:
1. freight volumes aren’t close to normal, they’ll rise.
In April (8 weeks):
2. the 1st real checks on EU imports start (bad news for food flow & haulage availability)
3. GB/NI grace periods end
4. more food products fall under new export rules

❗️Warning, we’ve been here before:
- Experts warn of trouble coming
- A short window to act
- UK Govt hopes it will all be OK, ignores evidence & warnings.
- Fails to act until too late.
For previous episodes, see end of the transition period (and Covid strategy)

So what has to happen right now? We need dialogue between UKGov & EU. The agenda?
How to achieve compliance in a way that isn’t cripplingly complex, slow, costly and paralysed by IT failures, different interpretations of rules, businesses given up & EU customers going elsewhere.

Case UKGov should make:
- current situation hurting EU import businesses & will soon hurt their exporters
- not about ‘special favours’, the UK/EU deal has provision for simplification of border checks
- the UK trade relationship is unlike any other the EU has with a 3rd country

So, is UK Government pushing for engagement?
No.
It believes the EU won’t come to table until it feels the pain of our checks on their exports to UK (April).
This is the same mentality of brinksmanship & last-minute agreements that so spectacularly failed us at the end of 2020.

Meanwhile, what are export businesses bleeding income from lost export sales supposed to do? Apparently, hang on until April in the hope of EU engagement then.
To be clear, UKGov officials are working their socks off. But they’re left to clear up the mess of Ministerial inaction

Meanwhile, back to trying to move fish 30 miles over English Channel.
The problems stack up. Major IT problems, but also 👇
- disagreement over red ink vs blue ink on forms
- fish species not translated into Dutch
Sounds ridiculous, but when you don’t test systems, they go wrong.

On the upside:
✅Some consolidated loads (groupage) have moved his week
✅@michaelgove has agreed to task force to explore simplification within UK (but, again, it needs the EU to come to the party - or at least be invited!)

So, how do we end January?
➡️Scared of Feb & Mar, terrified of April
➡️Business confidence either side of Channel badly wounded
➡️EU customers going elsewhere
➡️EU trade is now slow & costly and, at worst, just a high-stakes, long-odds gamble.

But, hey, the fish are happy😔