If we look at past experience with cold CoVs, we could expect reinfections to be common - say 1-3 year cycles - but with fewer symptoms, less shedding, and shorter course. (threads below)

Nobody truly knows yet, of course ...

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More from @jmcrookston

31 Jan
[From a chat. Someone asked what the origin for most infection comes from close contact]

From the epi reports where you ask the person what they did for a week, etc, and then find that they were close to a positive at some point, so the conclusion is "aha, close contact"
You're never going to know if its because of the 2m with that person, or being in some small room with someone else, because nobody is looking for air spread. Conclusion is that it's the close contact.
Why? because EPI STUDIES ARE ALWAYS LOOKING FOR DROPLET

Every question, etc, asked, is from the point of view that nothing except certain specific viruses (measles, etc.) are airborne.

Because remember, to them, if air, R0 would = a billion.
Read 12 tweets
22 Jan
First line is not a surprise at all.
I am not surprised that a virus with a higher binding affinity, as this new variant likely has, also leads to more serious disease.

Was always skeptical of the contrary.

Glad to see some data out about this.
Anybody hears of faster course of disease I'd be interested to hear it.

Also new pathologies because higher binding may mean new tissues become targets. Experts can guess probably ...
Read 4 tweets
9 Jan
#COVIDisAirborne. It always has been.

120 years we should have known this. Be generous say 80). We should have been prepared for it, but experts mangled the science so we aren't ventilating.

Short thread of threads.
Before 1850, miasma theory said disease came out of swamps and killed you. Nobody knew how.

~1850 Snow says cholera in the water (ppl thought in the air).

~ 1860 discovered bacteria. They didn't live long outside body.
By 1887, a Dr. Chapin knew diseases floated, like scarlet fever. Not as contagious as measles.

Read 25 tweets
8 Jan
I have a list of articles I never had a chance to pull. Old ones.

I just opened ONE. For fun.

The FIRST ONE.

It's from 1910. Image
Here is what the abstract said. Most is sprayed out, as found by Flugge. Within 2.5 meters (which is more than the 2m we are using now, interestingly). Image
Found bacteria on plates but not in air. Their collection methods were rudimentary, of course. That's probably why.

Mentions 7 colonies of bacteria in 140 litres of air. Concludes its safe, and mostly the spray.
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
We are not special, this is coming, and we need to pull out all the stops.

Vaccination is not a magic bullet nor coming soon.

Or HCW will die.

In the meantime please be safe in closed spaces. #COVIDisAirborne

We didn't do the work before so we have to now. #COVIDZero
@fordnation @JohnTory - to the social media people on these account: Mention it up the chain for these two to actually lead. Crack heads. Get going. Earn your keep.

This is a battle and we're on the sofa.

And get money out to people and businesses. This isn't their fault.
Read 5 tweets

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