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Aaron Astor Profile picture
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30 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
This map is a thing of beauty. It's amazing how many counties were created in the South in the late 19th c. but then nothing more.
OK so what's the story with the yellow column of counties in West Texas? Did they auction off a couple dozen counties at once?? @tjking @IPAzRGR8
You can see the vaguely triangular counties in Tennessee formed in the 1870s (Loudon, Moore, Hamblen, Chester) and the wedge-shaped ones (Pickett, Clay), basically the spaces between the old 8 miles-to-the-courthouse-radius counties.
Also, gotta love Lackawanna County, PA getting its independence from Luzern in the 1870s.

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More from @AstorAaron

Aaron Astor Profile picture
30 Jan
I'm starting to view 2020 as a GOP version of what 1968 was for Dems. The Capitol insurrection mob resembles the Chicago DNC, where an extremist base revolts against its own leaders for selling out. Lots of differences obviously - Cap police didn't beat protestors like in '68.
And Vietnam is not Trumpism. But the political revolt against its own putative leaders and resultant horror at the chaos began self-marginalization of the Democratic Party at the national level that took a long time to reverse.
A few cautionary notes if this parallel holds true. First, the Dems moved further toward the fringe in 1972 before swinging back in 1976. Also, Dems didn't exactly disappear after 1968. Old, local habits persisted for a LONG time. So if there is a shift it will take time.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
18 Jan
Does the "100 million vaccinations in 100 days" mean 100 million people are fully vaccinated? Or does it take into account the two doses (i.e. 50M vaccinated). Or some combination? Because 100M fully (two doses) vaccinated by April 30 would be impressive. 50M, not so much.
@youyanggu defines "immunity from vaccination" as three weeks after the first dose. He estimates 100 million Americans will be fully vaccinated by June 3. That would mean 100M "first dose" administered by May 13 - which is 113 days after inauguration.
So if that's the standard - 100M in 100 days is definitely achievable. We're at over 632k "first doses" per day now; with 2nd doses included we're at 800k per day. But should that be the goal? Or should it be higher?
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
9 Jan
When a kayfabe POTUS stokes the wildest fantasies of cosplay insurrectionists, and mind-melds his own sense of entitlement with the nihilist drivel of extremely online faux-constitutionalists, you get that shitshow we witnessed at the Capitol.
These guys cultivated a whole industry of survivalist porn - long before Trump or Obama. For most of us it was just a joke. And for some of them it was a joke too. But Trump activated in them a belief that they had a kindred soul in the White House whose power could never fail.
When Trump actually lost an election - and then proclaimed one idiotic "fraud" theory after another - they felt an even closer bond to him. So they thought they were "defending" the "real" Constitution at the Capitol, inspired by whatever fake Founder quote they had in mind.
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
9 Jan
The problem all along is that Donald Trump was indulged by social media platforms and allowed to violate its rules repeatedly. He regularly said things that if any of us said them, we'd be in Twitter jail. Why was he spared? Because he had the most elite position on Earth.
Either have these terms of service or don't. There has a been a double standard for years on Twitter, Facebook and other platforms. Ordinary people get suspended, shadow-banned, etc. for all sorts of things that the President got away with saying every single day.
I don't know how exactly to disentangle the public service element of social media from its private ownership - this feels like a First Bank of the United States debate from the 1790s - but there has to be at least some degree of consistency.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
8 Jan
Biden is releasing all the vaccines instead of holding half in reserve for a second dose. That way more people will be able to take a first dose. I think this is absolutely necessary and the right move given how bad the pandemic is spreading now.
The trials never tested efficacy of second dose beyond the 21/28 day window. But they did show very high protection levels 10 days after the first shot. There is obviously some risk that people will never take the second dose, or that it won't be effective as long.
But I think the tradeoff is worth it right now. Instead of having the current arguments over who gets the vax first, we can get the thing out to twice as many people.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
8 Jan
Gaming out Trump's Last Days. Four possibilities, considered in terms of what's best and what's most likely:
1) Trump resigns
2) 25th Amendment
3) Impeachment and Conviction
4) Run out the clock

The first is ideal as long as no pardon. Happens immediately. Pence runs transition.
25A - Ain't happening and frankly never was gonna happen. 25A wasn't written for these scenarios - it was created after the JFK assassination for Presidents truly incapable of discharging duties. Cray-cray or not, Trump wasn't "incapacitated." And Cabinet is quitting anyway.
Impeach and Removal - Best thing here is Trump can't run for office again. It'd require 17 GOP Senators, so it won't happen. If it did get 17 GOPers, it would be a true bipartisan rejection of Trumpism. Most likely is impeachment but no action on conviction. Which leads to...
Read 5 tweets

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