Li Shuo_ASPI Profile picture
Jan 30, 2021 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A SIGNIFICANT move that bears HUGE political implications for China's envi governance, air pollution, & coal development. On Jan 29, the central environmental inspection group (CEIP) released findings on its inspection at the National Energy Administration (NEA). Thread. Image
CEIP is essentially a tool that Xi Jinping established to ensure his environmental agenda is implemented on the ground. The subjects of the inspection is various govt agencies. The target for this time, NEA, has been engulfed in corruption scandals in recent years.
The report from the NEA inspection is released on the MEE website. It is unusually harsh and critical in its tone - definitely the juiciest and most insightful bureaucratic doc I've seen in years: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B501AB7WTt0i…
The report provides a long list of misbehaviors. Only reading original text will do justice, but here are a few big ones: 1) creative interpretation of air pollution regulations - changing low quality coal import "ban" to "limit", changing "shall" to "encourage" in NEA documents.
2) misguidance on coal power base planning - leading up directly to the construction of coal projects that should be banned and regional coal over-capacity.
3) the mentality of ensuring energy security at the expense of envi protection, taking economic and industrial burden as excuse for selective enforcement of envi standards.
Many of these misbehaviors have long been exposed by ENGOs, but falling on deaf ears. It's astonishing, for example, to see NEA approving coal projects when half of them stand idle. Now that CEIP puts it all in front of NEA, I am sure the career of some are doomed, and rightly so
NEA needs to provide a public response to the findings within 30 work days. It will be interesting to see how they plan to change course - that will hopefully have a major impact on China's coal development trajectory & contribute to clean up the sky as well as decarbonization.
Many correctly point out that the effect of China's campaign style inspection is often short lived. But I believe this one is a bit different - it will at least reshape the institutional culture of the NEA and align it with the latest vision on carbon neutrality.
Overall, a move long overdue and should set the record straight for the provinces and industries developing their peaking plans. END.
One addition: the NEA inspection was conducted using previous CEIP guidelines, which does not include climate as an evaluation indicator. As a result, the coal related laments were made on airpollution&overcapacity basis. MEE is now pushing climate into the inspection criteria.

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More from @LiShuo_GP

Feb 17, 2022
Some of China’s provincial carbon peaking plans are being released. Zhejiang, a costal economic powerhouse, just did so: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QRVO_0ifb1ID….
Its peaking target is interesting and reflects where we are with Chinese climate momentum. The Plan says “By 2030, to peak CO2 emissions followed by a steady decline.”
Much ambiguity there, can be interpreted as peaking as late as 2030, or peaking earlier and entering into a decline trajectory by end of this decade.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 22, 2021
With Xi's announcement at the UNGA to stop building new coal plants overseas, a deeper dive on what to make of it and what does it tell us about China's climate diplomacy. Thread
1. The commitment is a good step forward, one that has been long in the making. BRI has passed its feverish early years when quantity was king. Project quality is the new priority now. Overseas coal projects have already been reduced in recent years.
2. Many questions can be asked about the announcement, including whether it will be implemented immediately, does it include only financing or also construction, does it apply to state actors only, will it lead to a similar moriturum on over fossil fuels?
Read 10 tweets
Jan 15, 2021
It has been a few weeks since China's announcement at the #ClimateAmbition Summit to enhance its 2030 targets. Here is a quick overview of the domestic developments since then. Thread
The national ETS is feeling more pressure from the top to start running. The start date is now set for Feb 1, but expect much remaining technical works to be done afterward. In any case, price will be low and only the power sector will be covered at the initial phase.
The MEE was tasked to develop a national peaking roadmap and will require provinces and key industries to identify their peaking year. The exact mechanism of deciding the peak years is unclear, but expect a lot of haggles between Beijing and interest groups.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 13, 2020
As the dust settles for the #ClimateAmbitionSummit, here is my deeper dive on Xi’s announcement (thread)
1) China has now increased all 4 of its NDC headline targets. The peaking & carbon intensity targets are arguable the most important and have only received modest enhancement. The non FF target is politically easier, it sends a positive market signal, but can/should be higher.
2) Taken together, these enhancements should ensure peak emission between 2026&2030. This would require extremely steep carbon reduction post 2030 to deliver 2060 carbon neutrality. It also risks letting polluting industries grow further over the next 5 years.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 12, 2020
Watching the #climateambitionsummit2020. Xi Jinping to speak soon. Will he announce additional measures and enhance China's NDC?
Macron: President Xi will make an important announcement to add credibility to the 2060 carbon neutrality commitment. #ClimateAmbitionSummit #ParisAgreement #ClimateAction
Major announcement coming from Xi very soon. Will the need to improve China's image in the world propel a big decision from him?
Read 5 tweets

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