When examining the extent of leverage and influence a state from outside of the Indo-Pacific area can build in that area, first ask whether anyone in that area has any existential need for assistance from that state.
No European state, not even the EU plays a role of fundamental importance in the Indo-Pacific. Russia is not in a strong position there either. The only state from outside that carries decisive weight there is the US.
A bit of realism about the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific area in the UK would mean the UK would be taken more seriously there.
For a European state, an Indo-Pacific strategy is a useful optional extra to assist export businesses and at best otherwise get listened to when others make the key decisions there
But that cannot compensate for the need to build a sustainable strategy towards the rest of Europe
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What exactly will UK media debate shift to when German vaccination efforts speed up?
Because the German healthcare system is messing up the setting up of vaccination structures, but they will eventually get there.
And quite a few other EU countries are starting to get it together. Trying to build a narrative of national renewal out of what is a genuine yet time-limited success is not going to help long term once all the states around you figure it out and wrap it up a few weeks later.
If you want to get a sense of where German politics might be heading you need to keep an eye on the wildly polarising as much as the stodgily respectable.
That means keeping an eye on how Bild and those around it try to shape debate.
Germany is perfectly capable of generating its own world-beating vicious media grudges, partisan brawlers and cynical infighting
This is the crux of the difference between the German and UK healthcare systems. The UK government did not need a "vaccine summit" between national, regional, local and institutional stakeholders. It already had a centralised system it could move quickly sueddeutsche.de/politik/impfen…
The decentralised distribution of power in Germay mixed with established civil defence that was an advantage in managing COVID19 slows efforts to vaccinate against it. Contrast that with Romania where a less resourced system simply handed process to military and central agencies
Yes the EU Commission got some things wrong on the pace of vaccine procurement, but the speed of vaccination has as much if not more to do with wider systems EU member states have at hand to manage a complex and resource-heavy process.
Good video from @derspiegel outlining how the vaccine purchases are only one part of a whole range of structural and logistical problems facing German policymakers in rolling out mass vaccination programmes.
Making grand geopolitical and economic predictions based on differences in vaccination rollout of 5-8 weeks will look less salient once programmes wrap up over the course of the summer of 2021. By that time other economic and geopolitical crises as the aftershocks of COVID19 loom
I'm old enough to remember when test, track and trace was supposed to be what decided the fate of states.
The problems with the UK the EU is experiencing now are likely to be quickly overtaken by much bigger problems for the EU to its South and East if it does not move more quickly to ensure that neighbouring states such as Ukraine or Tunisia are vaccinated as quickly as possible
With the Covax programme and its own aid structures, the UK government could even get big soft power wins that hit a rare sweet spot of being seen to help Europe while also making the EU look slow and stingy by doing all it can to help vaccination in the Balkans and Maghreb
The soft power advantages the UK gets from being a few weeks ahead of the EU in its own vaccine programme in relation are temporary. By the summer the vaccine gap will be a less salient issue in politics as other new economic crises flowing out of this crisis loom.