1/ It takes a lot to move higher education, but COVID-19 is doing it. Many in higher ed are looking at a much different future, certainly much more on-line education (that's been happening and will accelerate).
2/ Expect more in-person (face-to-face) lectures w/ simultaneous live-streaming and recording to provide students w/ options, less demand for on-campus housing and transportation services at many universities, universities providing greater IT support off campus, and more.
3/ There is potential for greater service to under-served communities and advancement in diversity, equity and inclusion with these changes. But there is also a risk of doing it wrong and a loss of sense of academic community and support.
4/ This moment is a pivotal one for many colleges and universities. Reimagining not only the short-term, but also mid- and long-term future should be happening now.
5/ Loss or major changes in colleges and universities will affect states, regions, local communities, employers, future students, and other stakeholders. Very importantly, these stakeholders need to be a part of the discussion.
6/ The number of full-time equivalent students who are physically on campus at many universities will decline much more than total enrollment. There will be both cost savings and opportunities for repurposing physical infrastructure on campuses across the US.
7/ At many universities, these cost savings will be used for greater infrastructure, including smart classrooms for dual in-person and live streaming of lectures, and greater services for students both on and off-campus.
8/ Vacant space on campuses will serve many purposes, from leases to outside organizations to provide revenue to offset declining enrollment, communal space for partnerships w/ local community colleges and high schools, advanced student services for those on campus, and more.
9/ Some major universities, particularly w/ "elite" reputations or in states with swelling populations, will not have to worry as much about major changes. But the majority will, is, and must. It will be interesting to watch different strategies & successes, & sad to see failure.

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More from @CorsIAQ

27 Jan
1/ I am seeing many interpreting this as "it's safe to send kids back to school." That's a misinterpretation. First, safe implies certainty, which is not true here. What can be said is that it is much safer to re-open schools if specific risk reduction measures are taken.
2/ Densely-populated, poorly-ventilated (the majority of schools I have studied in Texas) schools, especially during any periods when masks are not worn are a recipe for infection. Ask Israel.
3/ Proper layered risk reduction works, is not rocket science, and does not have to break the bank. More on LRRS in my webinar here:
Read 6 tweets
23 Jan
We are a couple of weeks away from the anniversary of the first known COVID-19 death in the US. In February 2020 the US had approximately 20 total deaths. As we move into February 2021 we will be pushing 500,000 deaths w/ a trajectory aimed much higher.
We failed a year ago. Infections got too far ahead of us. Our response should now be an all-out war to starve this virus & its new variants of hosts, to do what we should have done 10-11 mos ago. We can lower the future death total before vaccines get us to where we need to be.
The ABSOLUTE MINIMUM that must be done to reduce inhalation dose in both the near- and far-fields is (1) UNIVERSAL mask wearing in ALL indoor environments other than one's own home in the presence of immediate family, and (2) physical distancing of AT LEAST six feet.
Read 6 tweets
21 Jan
I agree w/ @linseymarr that lower than 800 ppm is often needed, but we also need recognition that what is a "safe" CO2 concentration in on environment may not be safe at all in another, and vice-versa.
The actual max acceptable value depends on # of people present, typical time spent in environment, mask requirements, respiratory minute volume, and effectiveness of controls.
For 25 people spending 2 hrs in the same indoor space, a rough estimate based on a quanta generation rate similar to that in Restaurant X is CO2 < 695 ppm for an infection probability of < 5% w/o masks or controls. Assuming worst (no masks or controls) provides a safety factor.
Read 7 tweets
17 Jan
1/ Automobiles and Intake Fraction. Since cars are back in the news I thought I would retweet this model result I offered in early April 2020. I focused only on 1 micron particles & accounted for windows completely closed & cracked slightly open.
2/ Related air exchange rates were based on experimental results in literature for mid-sized sedans. Particle deposition to indoor surfaces were accounted for, as the surface to volume ratio in a 3 m3 cab is large. An important outcome was the intake fraction (IF)
3/ Here, IF is the number of particles (or virions in collective particles) inhaled by a receptor DIVIDED BY the number or particles (or virions in collective particles) emitted by an infector.
Read 12 tweets
17 Jan
1/ Thank you, Dr. @lisa_iannattone, and right on! And as an environmental engineer I never learned about physiology, internal organ function, etc. The best scenario is when we all work and learn form one another. That's the way we take on big challenges effectively. 👇👇👇👇
2/ Many years ago I was a PI on an NSF IGERT grant that involved students across 6 colleges at UT Austin. They wrote a wonderful editorial about the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
3/ The last paragraph in their editorial is particularly relevant.

And now four faculty members on that list of co-authors. @EllisonCarter, @etgall, @stephensbrent, James Lo.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jan
1/

Total US COVID-19 deaths = 385K (400K by end of weekend)

1 of every 855 Americans dead by COVID-19
1 of every 43,600 S. Koreans dead by COVID-19

End of Feb 2020
US deaths = 20
South Korean deaths = 17

By end of Feb 2021 US likely exceeds 500K
S. Korea may exceed 1,400
2/ Yes, the vaccine will ultimately help. But unless we work relentlessly to starve this virus of its hosts the case and death count will remain out of control until then. And the new variant means that we need to quadruple down on reducing inhalation dose.
3/ Inhaled dose (D) is important in BOTH the near (close) and far fields.

D = C x B x t x f

D = # virus-laden particles deposited (ultimately convert to vol), C = concentration in breathing zone (#/L), B = resp minute volume (L/min), t = time (min), f = fraction deposited.
Read 10 tweets

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