(1) Some rudimentary thoughts (or questions) on the coup, from a non-Burma watcher, but a Southeast Asianist and a student of civil-military relations.
(2) Apparent that the Tatmadaw is concerned about its political position vis-a-vis the NLD. However, I think it is important to disaggregate personal vs corporate interests.
NLD won 396/476 seats in Nov 2020. This was 83% of total; than 70% in 2015. Embarrassing for Tatmadaw, who thought NLD would lose ground after 2015. Corporate reason for coup.
(4) NLD repeatedly talked about removing military’s of 25% of seats in Hluttaw, and lift ban on ASSK serving as president. Corporate reasons for coup #2.
(5) Senior Gen. lMin Aung Hlaing’s rivalry with ASSK and personal ambitions also documented. Slated for mandatory retirement Jul 2021, eyeing move to politics. But USDP's poor polls showing dashed such hopes. Personal reason for coup.
(6) How things play out in the weeks, months ahead would depend on how in tandem these person and corporate interests coalesce.
Apologies for the typos ... writing on the fly. And Twitter doesn't allow me to edit my posts!
(7) Also important, the extensive links between civilian business and Tatmadaw. @gerardtmccarthy has written extensively about this; see bit.ly/36xOoNW.
(8) This is not Myanmar 1990 - private business activity has expanded significantly, and Tatmadaw more reliant on such undertakings and global markets for income.
(9) If there's ever a time for private business (Burmese and international) to wield leverage, this would be it.
(10) Coups are bad for business -> bad for Tatmadaw's bottom-line.
(11) RE: corporate vs personal interests, will be looking out for schisms (or unity) within senior ranks of Tatmadaw. If some senior officers find their bottom-line impacted, could seek a return to previous state of affairs.
Again, apologies for typos ... don't know how to tweet on the fly.
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