Could you explain to your readers that the carbon 'budget' for dire 1.8C of global warming may already be negative (ie too late), and that we may be very close to a negative budget for deeply catastrophic 2C which may hit by 2034 and will likely hit by 2045 or so?
'17% (one-in-six) chance that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C has already been exceeded'
Even with net-zero 2030 we could head well over 1.5C towards the theoretical Hothouse Earth danger zone.
Until the public grasps the extreme mind-boggling urgency, there will be no meaningful action.
Thread confirming that today, with average temperature already at 1.25C (using a conservative, probably misleading C19th baseline), 1.8C may already be gone:
Even the most optimistic future 'pathways' imagined by scientists for keeping tems as low as possible (1.5C or below), which are now highly unlikely, could actually lead to 2C as there's so much uncertainty. They could also lead to 1C in theory, but we're already at 1.25C so..👇
The public doesn't have this crucial information. It's utterly extraordinary.
Yes, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced towards zero in the 2020s for any reasonable chance of decent human survival, however, global warming is just one part of our predicament. Chemical, plastic, light & noise pollution, deforestation
2/, destruction of fertile soils, wiping out of insects, birds, reptiles, amphibians, & mammals, the collapse of major ecosystems, overkilling of ocean and terrestrial life,..all of these and more are an immediate threat to Earth's species including primates.
3/Economic growth really is killing life on Earth. Both the IPBES and IPCC acknowledge the need for a total transformation of the global economy. The IPBES has specifically pointed to economic growth as the problem. Every policy we read about is a joke. We need emergency change.
40% of Earth's plants, particularly trees, are threatened with extinction meaning most life on Earth is in immediate danger.
Economic growth based on destructive industrial agriculture, urbanization, dam-building, mining & logging can and must be replaced.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2…
The world’s seed-bearing plants have been disappearing at a rate up to 500 times higher than would be expected as a result of natural forces alone, according to the largest survey yet of plant extinctions.nature.com/articles/d4158…
'Researchers say the planet may be losing plant species more quickly than science can find, name and study them, which could have big consequences in the search for food crops that are resilient in the face of climate change and new medicines.'nhm.ac.uk/discover/news/…
A commitment to reach so called 'net zero' by 2050 and protect a mere 30% of land & ocean by 2030 is a commitment to continue emitting vast amounts of greenhouse gases while completing the destruction of ancient rainforests, coral reefs and Arctic sea ice. A commitment to horror.
'The combined prospects of an economic stimulus and infrastructure package—both of which will boost fossil fuel demand—spell a more prosperous 2021 and 2022 for the world’s biggest polluters.' newrepublic.com/article/161048…
Mammals, amphibians, reptiles and birds are also likely to disappear on a catastrophic scale in the Amazon and other naturally rich ecosysterms in Africa, Asia, North America and Australia if temperatures rise by more than 1.5C'
Emergency action required. web.archive.org/web/2020110104…
This is directed to myself as I haven't yet given coffee up, but I've slashed my intake towards zero drastically over the last 6 months. This month I've started cutting my chocolate intake. I mention this just out of interest and to confirm how serious is the ecological crisis.👍
That sounds ridiculous reading it back. Or does it? Imperfect communication on the need for both individual and system change and how they go hand in hand... Hopefully you get the idea.
However, the Hothouse Earth theory is not dismissed by Betts, but he sees it as speculation:
'even if the self-perpetuating changes do begin within a few decades, the process would take a long time to fully kick in – centuries or millennia.' theconversation.com/hothouse-earth…
3/
Is it fair to say 2C, likely by between the late 2030s and mid-century, will lead to the release of vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere from tropical, temperate & Arctic soils, and Earth's oceans & forests, and thus to further warming?