NEW: Pfizer expects $15bn of sales of the Biontech COVID-19 vaccine this year - a quarter of total 2021 sales - margin before tax in “high 20s” %... 50% gross margins split with Biontech. supplying 40m doses to low income countries via Covax at cost price...
...rather puts into context fact that Astra Zeneca & Oxford provided its vaccine at cost price to Eu and world (and that is defined in the famous contract released on Friday)..
effectively Biontech alone will gain in revenue much more than EU spending on its vaccine programme...
It’s not a perfect analogy, but effectively what the UK did was block its version of Biontech doing a deal with US pharma co, and matchmaked a UK company on condition of first dibs on vaccines and cost pricing..UK Gov was more dirigiste or strategic here, growing supply. EU not.
See interest thread eg here from former VDL rival/ ex Finnish PM - EU focussed on internal solidarity and sharing the pie - must be a source of frustration at least in Germany that they did not make first use of Biontech innovation (partially funded by EIB)...
None of which is to downplay importance of profit motive - even with these profits $15bn of Pfizer vaccines more than pay for themselves in terms of economic effect. AZ vaccine is cost price during the pandemic.
Clear there’ll be many billions more spent on recurrent basis now.
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What’s happening to food exports?Coming up on #bbcnews10 Bridport, Dorset fishing business owner Charlie Samway describes new 26 step process to export back across Channel what they catch in it... adamant a month in, having prepared extensively, these aren’t “teething problems..”
big one - newly compulsory Export Health Certificate - here being granted by visiting vet inspecting the fish (also required for many other foodstuffs) stamping every page and box, in English and French and sealing the lorry -which was then subsequently held at Dunkirk for 15 hrs
Govt suggestion these are “teething problem” did not go down well here nor at clients Waterdance at Brixham harbour (a firm visited by PM in August 2019 and promised “no unnecessary form-filling”) there they said it was “insulting” as value of catch falls a third...
“Best reasonable efforts”... defined... contract included the UK as EU manufacturing for purposes of a clause seeking to keep manufacture mainly in Europe...
Redacted schedule that refers to UK manufacturing sites.. for both “substance manufacturing” and “product manufacturing”
First time I’ve looked at these data in a while - 3,140 acute respiratory infection care home outbreaks in England in 4 weeks since weekend post Christmas, reported to PHE - not far off peak 4 weeks April, where was leading indicator of spike in care home mortality 2-3 wks later
Geographical spread in care homes reflects the spread of the virus in community - but also perhaps fact that many of the regions hit now were not hit so hard in first wave. Concern here is that it’s hitting care homes in regions spared in first wave.
Different type of vaccine being developed at Scottish factory of a French company - an “inactivated whole virus” - UK task force secured 60m dose preorder in July for €470m with options for 130m more 2022-25, invested in factory. EU finalised first order of 30m this month.
Basically the Government through @katebingham acted like a venture capital fund, funding many vaccine candidates, expensively, across different types of tech, with companies from different countries (at time of some scepticism that a working vaccine could be produced so quickly)
Though despite the fact French Valneva had been funded for its vaccines in general in 2018 by EU’s investment bank, UK funding guaranteed its production in UK (speculative VC style investment) - similarly UK signed deal with Pfizer for German developed/ funded Biontech vaccine
Extremely interesting iv with AZ chief Soriot:
“contract with UK was signed first and UK, of course, said “you supply us first”, and this is fair enough. vaccine was developed with UK govt, Oxford and with us as well. As soon as we can, we'll help the EU” repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/0…
What is surprised, in a way, is the absence of this type of “you supply us first” arrangement with say Germany and the German firm Biontech, with hundreds of millions in German govt and EU-funding that invented the Pfizer vaccine ...
extremely important piece of context here that AZ is exporting this at cost price, including essentially to developing countries, having been previously more focussed on monoclonal antibody COVID treatments... soriot’s predictions from last April - pretty much spot on: