Thread by @MatthewOToole2

Sorry to bore you with a thread, but we need to address the inaccurate, amped up talk of an 'economic United Ireland'.

Sadly it's a lie. Brexit means that in all areas not in the Protocol - and that includes fundamental areas - the north/south economies will *diverge*..

There is a huge list of areas which the Protocol does not cover and on which the UK-EU TCA is either silent or a huge retrenchment...

This includes all services (I.e. the large majority of both the UK and NI economies).

So: recognition of qualifications, data flows...

The digital single market and all telecommunications (eg roaming), public procurement, legal services, labour regulations and on and on and on.

But to pick two BIGGIES, which give the lie to misleading talk of 'an economic United Ireland'.

First, FINANCIAL SERVICES...

Ireland has always had cross border banks but financial services are excluded from the Protocol. Nothing is more fundamental to the real economy than banks. And in the absence of a meaningful deal on equivalence, our all-Ireland banks (I.e. 3 of big 4) have already reorganised...

Because there are certain kinds of ROI client work which now simply can't be done in Belfast.

We know Bank of Ireland is reviewing its presence in the north and Ulster Bank its presence in the south.

Not only is financial services not converging into unity, its *diverging*...

This by the way, is after decades and decades of businesses being able to rely on cross border banking. Even if imperfect, it was a huge driver of cross border activity. From the smallest SMEs along the border to corporate lending.

It wont stop, but it will be harder..

And second MIGRATION.

Fundamental to any economy in the 21st century is its immigration regime.

The island of Ireland now has two fundamentally different immigration regimes.

South will still benefit from freedom of movement while north will be subject to new UK rules...

CTA means UK and Irish citizens can still travel and work in both Ireland and Britain.

But a tech company or law firm in Dublin can't now send an EU 27 national to work in Belfast.

A French backpacker doing bar work in Galway can't get a coach to Derry for a new job...

(By the way even the DUP economy minister admits that the new UK immigration rules are shocking for the NI economy but keeps writing letters to Priti Patel to no avail)....

If you think major divergence on banking or immigration is evidence of economic convergence or indeed *an economic United Ireland* then I'm afraid I have some economists for you to talk to.

Yes, the Protocol has real consequences in the area of movement of goods...

And food, plant and animal health standards.

But in massive areas of our economy (again, the maj of NI economy is *services*) Brexit means the two parts of Ireland moving further apart not closer.

As someone who believes in an all Ireland economy, I wish it were otherwise...

But I'm getting fed up of reading hyped up analyses based on paperwork relating to certain goods movements without mentioning the many, many areas where cross border economic activity...

*will become harder not easier*

ends.