1/x & WE’RE DONE. Just like that the 💣astic comparisons to LTCM & Lehman are over, as we predicted.Thus is the power of VANNA. & Now that she’s Charmed all the🦒🦓 🦔back into their cages & Gary🦍’s once again well fed, it’s 🕰 for Vanna & Gary to team up for everyone’s favorite
2/x game show: The Wheel of Fortune. It’s a predictable show, w/ Gary around, but the charming daily payouts (of VRP) & bonus round winnings (market returns) make it worth the price of admission. Through 2/16 Gary should be able to keep the show under control w/his eyes closed,
3/x As Vanna has provided him an all you can eat portion of 🍌 🍌 until 2/12, & w/ Vanna around the ratings (SPX) should climb to new highs. That said, Gary should get his rest while he can. Vanna has another vacation planned after President’s day & Vixperation, & given the still
4/x weak seasonality & now that the animals have gotten a taste of the outdoors & Gary’s a bit more prone to exhaustion after the recent episode, they’re already plotting an escape in that 🪟. That said, it’s a shorter vacation than the last one: Just 1.5 weeks this time. &
5/x w/ the WoFortune’s big Spring season around the corner, as long as the animals don’t destroy the set, while she’s gone, there’ll likely be another great season of stellar ratings after her vacation, that could very well take us into a slowly reopening Goldilocks episode.
6/x W/new Larger prizes(stimulus), & dining/vacations around the world. After that in May, when the sun is shining & ratings are thru the roof in April, it’ll be time to start looking at a shift at rotating in a new show: The Price is Right. As Value will once again make a run
7/x at its long lost place at the top of the game show ratings, as rates, taxes, protectionism, & big tech regulation rise to the forefront... But for now, don’t figh the trend, BTD, just like old times. Look to take profits at any run to the 2 stdev up of the 20 day... Watch the
8/8 NdX run as we work our way out of earnings...& it’s time to get back to delta neutral index calendar call spreads, short a little VRP opportunistically, & most of all, our old friend, long dispersion. Enjoy the show... Don’t over 🤔 it. Good luck!🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

1 Feb
1/xGary barely held on for Vanna. The animals are still out of their cages. But Vanna is back & refreshed, & she is 1by1 using her Charm to coax them back into their cages. Gary already seems more relaxed here overnight, after a stressful couple of days where he wasn’t fed by the
2/x zoo keepers, & seemed more like King Kong lashing to & fro. While Vanna was gone, the de-grossing process driven by the retail call short squeeze mob took an overbought market, in a window of weakness that we have called for some time and managed to drop it over 5%. This has
3/x been much needed drop coming on the tail of a 20% market sprint since Sep. But at over a 7 sigma move the de-grossing action may have reached its ultimate terminus point at the logical investor reporting date of 1/29 EOM. Pair that potential selling exhaustion w/positive BOM
Read 13 tweets
28 Jan
4/x keepers are calling in the Fed(s) (Fed/sec) for some help getting the animals back under control, so they can feed Gary & get the zoo back under control. As they are likely giving guidance to the brokers to get this under control, as every major retail broker seems to be
5/x restricting trading in the short squeeze names to closing only. The Wheel of Fortune has a taping on Fri & w/out Gary at his best the show will be overrun by the animals. If they can make it to the EOM & keep Gary above the 20 day, calm him down & start feeding him,vanna will
6/x be back & should be able to nurse him back to his usual self & save the show. But there’s a lot of time between now & then & holding the animals @ bay until then seems like a colossal task. Given the pop in Ivols & backwardation of the curve, when vanna gets back she will be
Read 10 tweets
28 Jan
1/x It’s do or die time... the animals have broken out of their cages & are breaking things, & the zoo keepers are on the run. They have broken Gary out. What the animals don’t realize though is that in scaring the zoo keepers away they may no longer have any food to eat... That
2/x & oh yeah, you don’t want to see Gary hangry. Certain HF have been forced into rolling liquidations to meet margin & de-lever for redemptions/degrossing. The Q? is, is the deleveraging over yet or is it just beginning? Not surprisingly as that Q? Hangs in the air, we ended
3/x the day @ our long discussed critical point in SPX of the 1 std dev down of the 20 days. As I’ve mentioned in the past, a SUSTAINED break (2 day close) below this level could cause other systematic strats to sell off & w/ Gary on the verge of morphing into Kong, the zoo
Read 4 tweets
27 Jan
1/x Sometimes you are just too close to something to see it properly... So, today you get my wide angle lens. This market has had every reason to give us a correction and technical break the last 1.5 weeks. It’s come on the back of a monster run since September. It’s had its
2/x biggest wall of worry narratives chopped down 1 by 1. Sentiment & bullish positioning is at all time highs. Hedging activity is low. Breadth has deteriorated. Vanna’s been on an extended vacay. HF stress has recently increased. There’s significant economic, monetary policy, &
3/x global trade uncertainty.... Yet 1 thing & 1 thing alone has kept this market tethered, resulting in a week long digestion, that should continue. GARY 🦍 (dealer long gamma positioning). W/ the Fed meeting tomorrow, which is historically bullish. And EOM/BOM flows, which also
Read 10 tweets
26 Jan
1/x I’m going to do something a little different today... everything from yesterday’s note still completely applies. There is only one important new factor to contemplate. Citadel & Point72’s bailout of Melvin Capital...This was undoubtedly done in part due to the preferential
2/x terms that our 2 beloved 🦈’s received. But I think it would be a mistake to think that Ken & Stevie pulled the trigger as quickly as they did solely based on terms. After all, the term benefits are probably relatively small relative to 2 more important considerations that
3/x they clearly pondered. 1)what the immediate effects on their current books would be if they didn’t do the transaction vs if they did do it & 2)how they could use their ‘activism’ to proactively profit off of the deal. Given that the deal came together quickly, this tells me
Read 11 tweets
25 Jan
1/x All’s quiet on the western front... Gary 🦍 is well rested after the weekend & vanna after a Mon morning zoom call will be back to the beach until 1/29. As predicted several days ago the countertrend strength of growth names have and should continue to provide support after a
2/x strong run for valué names since Sep. This ST trend, as noted, is a fxn of over positioning paired with likely coming surges followed by 1 more round of lockdowns, as the hammer & the dance continúes w/ an increasing narrative surrounding the Irish covid variant in the month
3/x to come. This, plus growing frustration surrounding what’s currently a slow vaccine roll out & growing opposition to the size of Biden’s $1.9 tril stimulus deal should only add to the contra reflation thesis. Ultimately, this should end up being simply a refresh of what we
Read 10 tweets

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