Thread by @IsraelexLive

This poll is slightly odd, as it doesn't realize that it's three scenario polls.

The first posits that Ra'am rejoins the Joint List.
The second posits that Ra'am rejoins the Joint List *and* Labor and Huldai unite.
The third posits a union of the four national-religious parties.

https://twitter.com/TheJeremyMan/status/1356932139024076801

These three scenarios are in three completely different sectors of the public, so there probably aren't strong cross-contaminations in the what-ifs.

So, treating them individually:

1) If Ra'am rejoins the Joint List, they total 10 seats together. If they're separate, they total 12 seats but Ra'am is at the edge of the threshold and risks falling below.

Now, the general rule of "half the seats stay within the bloc" doesn't apply to the Arab parties, who aren't part of the bloc system. So it's not clear that they gain by the separation.

Then again, if Ra'am does fall below the threshold, that could be for two reasons: 1) its voters stayed home, or 2) its voters decided to stay with the Joint List. In the latter scenario, any seats lost by Ra'am would be added directly to the Joint List's total.

Worth exploring.

2) Labor has 8 seats alone. Huldai adds 3 if he runs with Labor even though he has barely a seat's worth of votes running alone. Since those 3 seats come from Yesh Atid, New Hope, and Yamina, this seems a clearly beneficial merger.

We've had an unusual number of those lately.

3) The national-religious parties total 4% of the vote running apart, with no individual party crossing the threshold. 4% is ~5 seats.

But if they run together, they get 6 seats. Probably beneficial, but it's difficult to tell because there's no non-scenario poll for comparison.