This poll is slightly odd, as it doesn't realize that it's three scenario polls.

The first posits that Ra'am rejoins the Joint List.
The second posits that Ra'am rejoins the Joint List *and* Labor and Huldai unite.
The third posits a union of the four national-religious parties.
These three scenarios are in three completely different sectors of the public, so there probably aren't strong cross-contaminations in the what-ifs.

So, treating them individually:
1) If Ra'am rejoins the Joint List, they total 10 seats together. If they're separate, they total 12 seats but Ra'am is at the edge of the threshold and risks falling below.
Now, the general rule of "half the seats stay within the bloc" doesn't apply to the Arab parties, who aren't part of the bloc system. So it's not clear that they gain by the separation.
Then again, if Ra'am does fall below the threshold, that could be for two reasons: 1) its voters stayed home, or 2) its voters decided to stay with the Joint List. In the latter scenario, any seats lost by Ra'am would be added directly to the Joint List's total.

Worth exploring.
2) Labor has 8 seats alone. Huldai adds 3 if he runs with Labor even though he has barely a seat's worth of votes running alone. Since those 3 seats come from Yesh Atid, New Hope, and Yamina, this seems a clearly beneficial merger.

We've had an unusual number of those lately.
3) The national-religious parties total 4% of the vote running apart, with no individual party crossing the threshold. 4% is ~5 seats.

But if they run together, they get 6 seats. Probably beneficial, but it's difficult to tell because there's no non-scenario poll for comparison.

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More from @IsraelexLive

4 Feb
Link to the live feed of list submissions for #IsraElex4:
"I am honored to present the first list of the day: The Pirates!"
Read 58 tweets
3 Feb
The first list submission for #Israelex4 has entered the room: Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party.
This is conducted under the strictest of coronavirus safety protocols.
* Shoulder-high plexiglass barriers that don't prevent aerosol spread
* Masks worn at all times except while talking, when infection is highest
* Two-meter separation, long proven to be irrelevant to the virus
Read 62 tweets
3 Feb
The chairman of the Pirate Party is trapped overseas because of the closing of the airports, and his deputy is ill and unable to come to the Knesset in person. This may prevent the Pirate Party from submitting a list this election.
The reason I wrote "may" rather than "will" is because the law explicitly allows for you to give power of attorney to somebody else to submit the list on your behalf. Which the Pirates are curiously uninterested in doing, since their plea to the CEC doesn't mention it.
Although list submission hasn't opened yet, apparently someone is hanging around the area wearing a pirate hat. So it looks like the Pirates finally and belatedly realized there was the power-of-attorney option after all.

Read 4 tweets
3 Feb
I was mulling over this months ago, and I'm mad at myself that I forgot all about it when it became relevant.

The reason Yesh Atid grabbed first in line for list submission is because they want to claim the פה symbol before their former partner Blue & White can do so. #Israelex4
My guess is Judge Vogelman will not allow Blue & White to simply use the same two letters in reverse (הפ), or even just one of them alone (ה or פ), due to the potential for confusion. But they can use one of these and one free letter, if they like.
This also explains why Yamina is second. Like Yesh Atid, they also have former list partners who will fight them for the טב symbol.

That situation is more complicated because טב has belonged to the Jewish Home for decades. If Yamina tries to use it there may be legal challenges.
Read 4 tweets
2 Feb
I'm retweeting this poll under protest and without analysis because the first scenario totals 121 seats and the results in the second weren't even provided.

Even by Israeli polling standards this is irresponsible. The media should refuse to hire Panels if they act this way.
By law, the CEC needs to be provided the internal details of every public poll. By sanity, the media clients who pay for polls should demand transparency from their vendors.

It is embarrassing that neither are doing their jobs, and that @TheJeremyMan - who has no way to force pollsters to comply - is the only one in the country even trying.

The state of Israeli polling is awful and the very media who complain about it deserve so much of the blame.
Read 6 tweets
26 Mar 20
Quick explainer on whether Handel and Hauser will suffer sanctions if they leave the Telem party to join the Netanyahu-Gantz coalition.
The law says that MKs who split off of a Knesset faction suffer sanctions UNLESS they fulfill one of three conditions:
A) They number at least 2 MKs and make up a third of that Knesset faction or more;
B) The split is along party lines, in a Knesset faction made of multiple parties;
C) They split in protest of their faction's decision to merge with another faction.
Any one of these is sufficient.
The main question here is exactly how the Blue & White faction's split will be seen in the eyes of the law. Remember that Blue & White is made up of three parties:
* Gantz's "Israel Resilience"
* Lapid's "Yesh Atid"
* Ya'alon's "Telem"
Read 9 tweets

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