Thread by @bopinion

The pandemic accomplished in 10 months what the internet has promised for decades: a shift away from expensive cities as the dominant centers of business activity.

It's a shock that's just beginning to reverberate through the system trib.al/nyPDIsc

Meanwhile, rents have actually risen modestly in low-cost areas like:

📈Albuquerque, New Mexico
📈Fresno, California

Narratives have sprung up about the future of the technology industry being in places like:

⚡️Austin, Texas
⚡️Miami, Florida
trib.al/nyPDIsc

Places like New York are expensive for a reason.

2021 might actually be a once-in-a-generation opportunity for ambitious young people to get bargain pricing on the best cities in America trib.al/nyPDIsc

🗽The argument for New York remains a compelling one.

For those who are early in their career, nothing beats the experience of in-person exposure to countless people in one's industry from whom they can learn and grow trib.al/nyPDIsc

To the extent remote work remains at a high level even after the pandemic, these types of office settings might become even more scarce than they were before, making them more sought-after by young workers who need them for career advancement trib.al/nyPDIsc

High vacancy levels are a problem for a city's tax base and its landlords, but for workers new to a city they're an opportunity.

Low vacancy rates and high commercial rents constrained business formation in the 2010's. The opposite could happen in 2021 trib.al/nyPDIsc

Long-time New Yorkers might still weep for the businesses that were lost, but for new residents, it will mean an abundance of new choices post-pandemic.

While it's going to take years for NYC to come all the way back, the recovery is already underway trib.al/nyPDIsc

In New York, elevated vacancy rates and a plunge in rents is creating the perfect conditions for economic improvement:

📈Leases are starting to surge
🌆Rents appear to be bottoming out
💉Vaccination rates are increasing
📉Infections have begun to fall
trib.al/nyPDIsc

If cities are analogous to the stock market, NYC would be like a quality growth stock that historically traded at a large premium to the market.

After going through a rough patch, its price is knocked down 20% — but it's still trading at a slight premium trib.al/nyPDIsc

New York’s turnaround is just starting.

A purely by-the-numbers value investor might say that it remains a little expensive and there are cheaper stocks out there, but that ignores all the reasons it was expensive to begin with trib.al/nyPDIsc