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David Henig Profile picture
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4 Feb, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Dial down the politics and uncertainty and Northern Ireland has a potentially strong offer to business. Unfettered goods access to EU, mostly unfettered to GB, plus large numbers of population eligible for dual passports so can work across UK and EU.
In general the UK will do better with the EU once it stops treating those who want to negotiate better outcomes as opponents, and moves away from tried and failed techniques of bluster followed by retreat.
What is the UK gaining from this refusal to fully recognise the EU Ambassador? A good headline at the expense of an ability to influence our major trading partner and a global regulator?
In normal times this would be the job of the opposition. But there are very real risks that the UK government, egged on by media and with a pliant political opposition, continues to see needling the EU as the best approach, with inevitable economic loss.
Might be tempted to suggest this is as per forecast...

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
5 Feb
Long thread. My view - the UK has since 2016 underestimated what goods border checks mean, and still does. That makes it very difficult for the EU to respond effectively to suggestions the operations of the protocol must be seriously changed. Especially after a month.
If the UK government went to the EU and said "here are three things that if you do we will resolve internal UK issues like unionist opposition to the protocol" then that is interesting. "Here are 20 things and we still don't guarantee we won't be back for more" is almost useless.
Let us be blunt the EU fear the UK wish to erode the Northern Ireland protocol to nothingness with a series of demands that never end. So yes this is about disruption, but it is also about trust. And that needs the UK side to change - such as the PM to admit there are checks.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Feb
Interesting thread, expect to see the rate of vaccinations to rise in France in the coming months, as I suspect also to be the case in many other developed countries. Adds to previous suggestions that covid shows modern globalisation is stronger than national exceptionalism.
Not that relatively equal nation states can't get advantages in a globalised world, but the speed of information and goods transmission means they are likely to be short lived. Suggests to me the long term fundamentals are more important than short term actions.
A Brexit angle on covid and globalisation? One fundamental is changed, the level of our trade integration with the EU. But not others, such as our general demand for regulation or strength in services.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Feb
New @instituteforgov report on managing UK-EU relationship. I would start in a different place, and I think get to a different result - our priorities should be resolving trading issues and influencing future regulations, plus general political relations. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
I think we get distracted by the elaborate committee structures set up by UK-EU treaties. The EU aim to do this with everyone. The only way we're special is we have two treaties so two sets of committees. That's actually quite revealing in its way. Image
So how do the committes help us if we have day-to-day business issues, as we do and will, or want to try to influence EU regulation? They don't, necessarily. This is going to have to be the same stuff as we do with every country in the world. Only more so, more at stake.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Feb
Admitting Brexit has a cost?
Might start a Brexit dictionary. In this case "absurd" means perfectly normal outside of a single market. bbc.com/news/amp/enter…
Just wait until UK Ministers discover that every country has non tariff barriers to trade and the only group of countries to remove them almost completely are the EU plus EEA countries.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Feb
Integrated supply chains like this affect all sectors of the economy, and are in turn affected by greater barriers. ft.com/content/9fb6b5… Image
Someone made the very good point to me earlier this week that even small companies can have their own global supply chains - technology raised that possibility. But now many UK companies are disadvantaged.

My paper published earlier this week. ecipe.org/publications/g…
So why don't we bring the entire supply chain back to the UK like in the 1970s? Because that will not produce the same quality of goods at the same price. And we'll be hopelessly uncompetitive compared to those drawing on a range of inputs. Image
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Feb
Useful. And adds to my feeling that UK negotiating hand over Northern Ireland is rather weak. Yes the Commission mucked up. And yes there are difficulties. But the UK previously made threats, and PM doesn't seem to understand what he signed up for. Needs cleverer UK approach.
If UK politics can't be honest about what has happened in EU talks particularly with regard to Northern Ireland then we face having the same conversations on repeat, to the frustration of all, leading to the same outcomes. And causing economic loss and political impotence.
This is what I mean by lack of honesty about the outcome of talks. Facilitated by the English print media and opposition not wanting to have the conversation about the way we lost negotiations then pretended it was a victory.
Read 7 tweets

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