We talk about liberal and conservative bias, but status quo bias is at the root of many of our problems. The worst institutional failures, the most immoral policies, survive because “that’s just how we do things.”
Dems are moving forward with budget reconciliation, because Manchin, Sinema, and likely others, refuse to get rid of the filibuster.
“Budget reconciliation.” It sounds sober, important and official. It's a disaster, and it has become the main way the Senate passes big bills.
Budget reconciliation layers a bad process atop a broken process. To counter the minority’s abuse of the filibuster rule, the majority abuses another rule — the budget reconciliation rule — in a way that makes legislation systematically and undeniably worse for all of us.
I get into the details of how it works in my column today, but in this thread, I want to pull out a bit of how it warps what kind of legislation the Senate considers, and the way that legislation is designed — for the worse.
Budget reconciliation wipes out legislative provisions that aren’t primarily spending and taxing. So you can do $1,400 checks, but not emergency paid leave. You can expand Medicaid subsidies, but you can't tell insurers to cover preexisting conditions.
You're writing legislation, in other words, without the full tools normally available to legislators. The cost of budget reconciliation is poorly designed legislation, and that's a cost the Senate, as an institution, has decided we should pay.
This thing where Republicans keep passing massive tax cut packages that expire after 10 years, leading to cliffs and constant uncertainty? That's budget reconciliation. It's led to repeated, multi-trillion $$ tax packages that are written to simply vanish on a certain date.
Budget reconciliation means there’s a 60 vote hurdle for, say, automatic voter registration, or gun control, but only a 51-vote hurdle for cutting taxes on the rich or boosting the EITC. It biases the Senate away from anything non-budgetary.
“Why should it only take a simple majority to do tax cuts for the rich but it takes a supermajority to address the integrity of our elections?” @SenJeffMerkley told me. “That makes no sense. Access to the ballot shouldn’t have a higher hurdle than helping the rich get richer.”
I don’t want to get into the weeds on how many budget reconciliation packages you can do a year here, but suffice to say, not many, so it pushes the Senate towards these massive omnibus bills that, as @adamjentleson told me, weaken committees and are a “field day for lobbyists.”
Democrats could simply ignore the parliamentary rulings and widen what could go through budget reconciliation, and I’ve heard from Senate staff who think that’s what they’ll do. But then why not just get rid of the filibuster?
The repeated use of budget reconciliation —both of Trump's major legislative pushes (Obamacare repeal and tax cuts) used it, and the first major push under Biden will too — shows that even the filibuster’s supporters know a 60-vote Senate doesn’t work.
I want to say this clearly: Though it is the self-styled moderates, like Manchin and Sinema, who freeze the institution in dysfunction, there is nothing moderate about the way the Senate now works: It is radical in its inanity, and terrible in its consequences.
Only the worst form of status quo bias could make these kludges seem preferable to actually rewriting the Senate’s rules in a sensible way. No one would ever, ever design a legislative chamber to work this way. It’s only status quo bias that lets so many accept it now.
There’s much more in the piece. But I’ll end here where I end there. I’d prefer Democrats use reconciliation, as Republicans do, if they won’t get rid of the filibuster. But this is a terrible way to legislate. Just end the filibuster. nytimes.com/2021/02/04/opi…
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So putting aside the question of whether Matt is uncivil on Twitter (he often is, he admits it), I want to say this is a mean and uncivil way to think about how other people live their lives and make their decisions. aei.org/poverty-studie…
This idea that it's too cushy to be unemployed, or to be a single parent — or would be too cushy if we passed a child allowance so those families wouldn't live in poverty — is just awful. Dressing it up in technocratic language doesn't change that.
"Incentives matter." Ugh.
I believe "incentives matter," on the margin. But life circumstances matter more. Luck matters more.
I believe children shouldn't grow up in poverty. Every estimate we have suggests this policy would mean far fewer of them do. Scott doesn't have a credible estimate otherwise.
“I don’t think conservatism can do its job in a free society in opposition to the institutions of that society,” Yuval Levin told me. “I think it can only function in defense of them.”
One thing I'd pull out: A lot of our conversation is about the weakness of Republicans institutions.
When I brought this up, Levin responded that a reason Republicans have fled a lot of mainstream institutions is they've become more liberal.
Causality there is complicated, and we go back and forth on it in the full conversation. But even if you buy that explanation completely, it doesn't explain away the problem.
Good thread by Matt. I’d just add that it’s bizarre to watch smart people treat the size of this package as some kind of math error. This is not just a package to close the output gap. It’s not 2009, economically or politically (and we failed in 2009 by going too small then!)
The point of the Build Back Better frame, which the Biden team has hardly been shy about, is coronavirus has shone light on savage, preexisting inequities in our society, and a moral response to this crisis requires addressing them too.
That will make the package bigger than the output gap because it is trying to do much more than close the output gap. And properly so.
This is a good plan by @MittRomney, and Democrats should eagerly work with him to pass it. There's items worth debating in here — particularly the pay-fors — but what a wonderful world where this is what we were debating. vox.com/future-perfect…
This is the part of the horror film where safety seems in sight, but it is obvious, to those paying attention, that the monster is not dead, and that the worst may be yet to come. We cannot let ourselves be taken by surprise. nytimes.com/2021/01/28/opi…
A lot of the advice in here is to do more of what we are doing. But some of it isn't! Among other things, the FDA really, really needs to open the gates on at-home antigen testing. The virus is getting faster. We need stronger tools to keep up.
And we need better masks — and maybe the government should simply produce and distribute them directly. Quickly.
This is a good @mattyglesias post about techno-politics but I want to quibble with the part of it that’s about my essay on the policy feedback loops you can build by Just Helping People Fast. Matt writes: slowboring.com/p/you-cant-bla…
I want to be clear here: I’m saying that the Affordable Care act was, from a political perspective, badly designed, and that *a different health care plan* might’ve led to a better Dem performance in 2010. But these arguments don't grapple with that.