1/ Thinking about the impact of the new strain (B117). Read this thread. It is significantly more transmissible than the previous strain, which means the measures we're used to can reduce classic infections, but they're *not yet good enough* in Denmark to stop growth.
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1357300128537841664
2/ the difference between R < 1 and R > 1 is enormous. R<1, each day is better than the last. R>1, even a little, and each day is worse than the last.
3/ it appears to be particularly difficult to bring R below 1 for the new strain. If Denmark is having trouble, I don't know if the US can do it.
4/ B117 is in the US already. It's slated to be dominant in California by end of March.
5/ The speed at which we vaccinate is going to be key. Every week counts.
6/ and, I hate to say it, I suspect reopening schools before summer is likely to be a bad idea. If schools contribute even a little bit to R, they could mean the difference between having another serious wave or not.
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