While I am an unabashed bull, going for the jugular on what I think is a career trade in the making, this is the internet so I have to put my Old Man hat on here for a second and add a little clarity and context.
If your plays have been working the past couple weeks, you're probably finding yourself in a bit of a mania. Faster heart rate, sweaty/tingling palms, sht, you feel it in your GROIN. Seriously.
You're talking faster, thinking faster, pacing. Starting to think "I'm gonna make it"
I hope you do. And I think you are. But now is the time to lean AGAINST those feelings and emotions. It's the time to meditate, to remove yourself from your body metacognitively. Examine yourself and your behavior. Are you truly holding things you believe in?
Have you done the research. Do you have the community around you to support you both in pushing you forward AND holding you back.
Are your bills paid, do you have 3-6months cash in the bank.
Do you have any bills/expenses that "if this keeps going, I will be fine" ?
Bull markets do NOT move in a straight line. If it was that easy, everyone would be doing it. Okay so everyone IS doing it, and does it, but not everyone can handle it. less than 1% can really. I want that to be you.
Take a look at this chart. First things first, March looks like a literal blip already. But there's another one most of you have already forgotten about... the Thanksgiving Slaughter.
Use this moment to reflect back on those. How did you feel? How did you act and react? What kind of emotions ran through your head?
I think of this like "studying tape". You know why? Tom Brady does. Champions study tape Every. Single. Day.
So prepare yourself. If you're huffing that hopium and you couldn't realistically handle a 20% drawdown, you need to trim. These are moments when we get 40-60% drawdowns, because that would still be up 100% in a month!
Anyways, this is all to say I don't think this bull market is over, but my opinion shouldn't fking matter to you. You need to be able to read it and use it as one input of your own decisions.
Peacetime is for training and preparation for war.
War always comes.
Stay safu❤️
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I think there's two ways to try and wrangle a mental model around just what in the heck is going on right now.
See lots of "craziness/never seen anything like this before in my life/top signals everywhere but also who knows" which I think is FAIR and even CORRECT but prob WRONG.
The other side of it is I've also been sitting in markets for awhile and I've seen this sht everywhere. It's just been contained to pockets.
We have now fully transitioned to the On-Chain Mimetic Economy. To some degree we were always there, but we've crossed an event horizon.
Back in the day, you needed j*urnalists to go out to un-networked pockets of the world, find things happening, and bring that information 'on-chain' (into a newspaper) to network it back into our collective consciousness.
I'm gonna let you in on a little secret that few still understand fully:
The 'analysis' that Wall Street produces used to be a revenue generator, but now it's a cost center. That means it's treated as a loss leader and categorized as marketing. It's not meant to be correct.
Back in the day, the bulge brackets would hire hundreds of new analysts every year. Those analysts would primarily fetch coffee and lunch for a few years, but they had a real career path. Stick around and they could run a desk or a research operation, and make millions.
On the other side were lots of small operations. Most hedge funds and asset managers were small teams, and couldn't afford to send a team out to Taiwan to do things like supply checks. So the banks had their analyst army handle it, and that brought in business.
The strategy side of business and life that everyone is doing but is too scared to talk about.
This is likely to gin up a few unfollows, so let’s get started, shall we?
I’m a big believer in conflict. I love it. Rather than avoid conflict, the most personal growth I’ve gone through has come from leaning into conflict wholeheartedly. But all conflict IS not created equal. The right type of conflict builds empires, and the wrong type topples them.
THE WOLF
There is a popular trope of the Lone Wolf. And while true, the real power of wolf society imparts from tight-knit, tribal behavior and cooperative hunting techniques. But wolves fight, specifically over who will be the Alpha. How they fight however is what’s important.