Thread by @therorymurray

I think there's two ways to try and wrangle a mental model around just what in the heck is going on right now.

See lots of "craziness/never seen anything like this before in my life/top signals everywhere but also who knows" which I think is FAIR and even CORRECT but prob WRONG.

The other side of it is I've also been sitting in markets for awhile and I've seen this sht everywhere. It's just been contained to pockets.

We have now fully transitioned to the On-Chain Mimetic Economy. To some degree we were always there, but we've crossed an event horizon.

Back in the day, you needed j*urnalists to go out to un-networked pockets of the world, find things happening, and bring that information 'on-chain' (into a newspaper) to network it back into our collective consciousness.

Hedge funds, analysts, and other moneyed interests could get ahead of this.

The Truth was Out There but the Collective Consciousness got it last.

Now, the Truth is inherently networked and on-chain. By on-chain I mean the Collective Conscious, so this means Twitter, Discord, memes burning like wildfire through the group chats.

Now, j*urnalists/analysts are LAST to get there, merely reporting on the already networked Truth

In physics, the rules change when you approach zero Kelvin, also known as absolute zero. Learning about this a few yrs ago helped me formulate a mental model around QE and ZIRP by realizing that the fundamental way we understand economic rules changes at the zero lower bound.

I believe we're in a similar but different dynamic now. We've crossed a mimetic event horizon where the Truth has flipped from majority un-networked, high-friction to obtain to majority networked and accessible by the Collective Consciousness.

The thing about crossing an event horizon is we have never been on the other side of one. So we don't actually know what the rules are. We have an idea, guesses, theories. But we don't know. It's also why 'experts' are so woefully wrong. They used to lead Truth, now they follow.

This is not meant to say that some crazy valuation metric is okay, or sustainable. It's not to say the business cycle is dead, or support whatever other BS people with way too long bios and way too big of a toothy smile in their profile pics have.

We just don't know.

Thanks to @harry_sudock @arjunblj and @_samcasey for helping me whiteboard some of these thoughts lately.

The good parts they helped bring me back on the reservation with. The crap is purely my own.