Thread by @WilcoxNMP

C'mon, Ezra. I'm all for Romney's new child allowance. But @swinshi's concerns about its potential effects on family & work are *legit*. It's not fair to dismiss them as "mean." Take family. What did Raj Chetty et al find was the best predictor of economic mobility for poor kids?

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1357747522651922435

"Of all the factors most predictive of economic mobility in America, 1 factor clearly stands out: family structure. By [Chetty's] reckoning, when it comes to mobility, 'the strongest and most robust predictor is fraction of children w/ single parents.'” slate.com/human-interest…

There's tons of research linking single parenthood to poverty, mobility, educational success, you name it. See this @Princeton @BrookingsInst volume for more: futureofchildren.princeton.edu/sites/futureof…

So if you're concerned about kids, including poor kids, like Scott is, it is totally legit to worry about how a new policy might affect how men &women form their families. Again, there are plenty of studies suggesting welfare policy has had a hand in increasing single parenthood.

TBS: This literature is mixed & contested, but most fair-minded scholars would ack that welfare policy probably played a modest role in boosting single parenthood. A fair-minded overview is provided here by David Ellwood & Chris Jencks: hks.harvard.edu/publications/s…

Because childbearing is hitting record lows, childbearing has fallen *most* among less advantaged women lately & our economy seems increasingly precarious, I'm not that worried that Romney's child allowance will lead to a surge of single parenthood in 2020s. I differ w/ Scott.

But let's not forget that all of us would like to see a world where more kids are flourishing economically, socially & emotionally. Such a world is more likely to come into being if more kids are raised in stable 2-parent families. The ?s are: How can policy strengthen families?

And how can policy reduce child poverty? Hoping we can keep thinking about ways to do both.