1/ Having now read thousands of pages across hundreds of articles about the debate of PROGRESS or GREAT STAGNATION
And seeing learned people flip their minds--in both directions--(like Othello chips⚫️⚪️) given persuasive new evidence...
And seeing learned people flip their minds--in both directions--(like Othello chips⚫️⚪️) given persuasive new evidence...
2/ I believe...
there are the contributing elements of "lag" and "mismeasurement" possibly behind the Solow Paradox (paraphrased as tech is everywhere 'cept in productivity)
there are the contributing elements of "lag" and "mismeasurement" possibly behind the Solow Paradox (paraphrased as tech is everywhere 'cept in productivity)
3/ I believe...
there are salient anecdotes + examples NEAR and FAR (subject respectively to recency bias...and nostalgia for clearly-compounded effects of old technologies)
there are salient anecdotes + examples NEAR and FAR (subject respectively to recency bias...and nostalgia for clearly-compounded effects of old technologies)
4/ I believe...
that science + tech breakthroughs are true SURPRISES with complex diffusion patterns and knock-on effects and don't fit linear or monotonic measures
that science + tech breakthroughs are true SURPRISES with complex diffusion patterns and knock-on effects and don't fit linear or monotonic measures
5/ I believe...
that if the ZEITGEIST or dominant narrative is that productivity has SLOWED and we are in a 'great stagnation' (there are some people even more motivated to disprove it; and others who feel resigned + complain and amplify it)... WHILE––
that if the ZEITGEIST or dominant narrative is that productivity has SLOWED and we are in a 'great stagnation' (there are some people even more motivated to disprove it; and others who feel resigned + complain and amplify it)... WHILE––
6/ I believe...
that if the ZEITGEIST or dominant narrative shifts to a 'great awakening' and resurgent ACCELERATION of progress it is not because that is true––(i think it is all more random + immeasurable) but because we are noticing, labeling and telling new STORIES about it
that if the ZEITGEIST or dominant narrative shifts to a 'great awakening' and resurgent ACCELERATION of progress it is not because that is true––(i think it is all more random + immeasurable) but because we are noticing, labeling and telling new STORIES about it
7/ I believe...
people WANT to 'do something' and policy needs data OR incredible stories to build support that the policy is a good idea...
whether a new Endless Frontier Act, an incentive or an antitrust mandate (ala Bell Labs) for corp labs
me think it's all way more random
people WANT to 'do something' and policy needs data OR incredible stories to build support that the policy is a good idea...
whether a new Endless Frontier Act, an incentive or an antitrust mandate (ala Bell Labs) for corp labs
me think it's all way more random
8/ And at any given point we can find SUBSECTORS as evidence for great progress and other SUBSECTORS as evidence for great stagnation
I'm ok w/the uncertainty of it all––and the CERTAINTY that some people want status, fame, wealth, respect and will forever be motivated to INVENT
I'm ok w/the uncertainty of it all––and the CERTAINTY that some people want status, fame, wealth, respect and will forever be motivated to INVENT
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