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Tren Griffin Profile picture
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6 Feb, 5 tweets, 2 min read
This is hilarious:

"The film is described as exploring how a populist uprising of social media day traders beat Wall Street at their own game, turning the stock market upside down and shaking the financial world to its core." msn.com/en-us/movies/n…

If all else fails, pretend!
The bar for "shaking the financial world to its core" has apparently been lowered! I didn't get that memo.

A bunch of traders staging a modern day Piggly Wiggly "corner" of an over shorted stock didn't shake anything but the heads of actual investors.
"Populist uprising" was a narrative spread by promoters to generate the desired feedback. Journalists assisted.

As with Long-Term Capital Management, cannibalistic hedge funds smelled blood and jumped in to profit from other hedge funds who were left exposed by their shorts.
4/ GME acquiring a market cap of $28 billion for a very short period "shakes the core of the financial system"?

Any movie about GME should be a tragicomedy plus elements of The Producers, The Sting and Trading Places.

Berkshire alone has $140-billion-plus in cash.
5/ As context, Databricks just raised a $1 billion Series G at a $28 billion post-money valuation.

In terms of the overall global financial system, $28 billion in highly transitory GME market cap isn't even rounding error.

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
5 Feb
1/ Do you know what book this is from?

"The game of Corner—for in its heyday it was a game, a high-stakes gambling game, pure and simple,
embodying a good many of the characteristics of poker—was one phase of the endless Wall Street
contest between bull and bears."
2/ "The situation would be set up when a group of bears would go on a well-organized spree of short selling, and would often help their cause along by spreading rumors that the company back of the stock in question was on its last legs. This operation was called a bear raid."
3/ "The bulls’ most formidable—but, of course, riskiest—counter-move was to try for a corner. Only a stock that many traders were selling short could be cornered; a stock that was
in the throes of a real bear raid was ideal."

What investor highly recommends this book?
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
4 Feb
A Falcon 9 just stuck a landing on a drone ship.

Routine.

Still a cray maneuver after all these launches tho.
This SpaceX operations center is a picture of capital efficiency. Desks and screens. No extraneous crap.
60 Starlink satellites stacked as efficiently as possible ready to deploy.
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
2 Feb
1/ I was going to write about this "Elon does Live Clubhouse (Featuring Vlad)" event last night, but Casey made several key points before I could, so he preempted me in a good way. platformer.news/p/clubhouses-m… "Because you’re on a phone mediocre audio quality doesn’t grate as much."
2/ Casey: "Mainstream tech coverage in recent years has become, in the sharp framing of Ben Thompson, dominated by rational skeptics; A16z spotted a gap in the market, and now seeks to fill it with rational optimism."

This is upsetting to people who sell "sharp spicy takes."
3/ I love a sharp spicy take too, but I like a mixed diet that includes rational optimism. What I love even more as a writer is more people like Casey showing that writers have alternative ways to make a living from their work. That helps even staff journalists get a higher wage.
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
31 Jan
What questions would you ask Elon Musk?

Mine would include:

What are Starlink's plans for a mobile rather than just a transportable terminal?

When will an affordable mobile Starlink service be accessible in a Tesla using a factory installed terminal?
More questions for Elon Musk:

Can you expand on what you said by applying the ideas to SpaceX and other businesses?

“Tesla's Long-Term Competitive Advantage Will Be Manufacturing.”

“We realized that the greatest potential is building the machine that makes the machine."
How much of Boeing's outsourcing of manufacturing is responsible for its current problems? Is Boeing an OEM?

How much of an accelerant of problems was created when Boeing's business was no longer being run by engineers?

Do you agree with what Coach Campbell said below?
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
31 Jan
1/ "Value at Risk (VAR) is one of the dumbest ideas ever put forward." Charlie Munger

"Life in financial markets has no relation to standard deviation." Warren Buffett

Hedge funds "love them some standard deviations" tho:
msn.com/en-us/money/ot…
2/ The same false assumptions that underestimates stock-market risk, mis-price options, builds bad portfolios, and generally misconstrue the financial world are also built into the standard risk software used by the world's banks. The method is called Value at Risk." Mandelbrot
3/ "You have outlying phenomena you can't anticipate on the basis of previous experience." George Soros

"The precision that goes into saying this is two standard deviation or three and therefore we can afford to take this much risk and all that, it's totally crazy." Buffett
Read 10 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
30 Jan
1/ When Hardcore Software drops Monday people will ask me: What Is your favorite part of the Microsoft story? How young were you then?

In the summer of 1980 when IBM arrived in Seattle to license languages and an OS and to get help on creating their PC, I was this young:
2/ My favorite part of the book was 1993-4 when the Information Highway was caught and then obliterated by the Internet. There's a section in the book on Tiger servers and why they failed to become commercial, the Cornell trip, the Internet retreat etc. …rdcoresoftware.learningbyshipping.com
3/ No one knows how Bill Gates' Think Weeks were actually structured better than Steven. I was always asked to supply reading material and a memo on what was happening and would happen on public networks since by then I was working at a startup funded by Bill and Craig McCaw.
Read 4 tweets

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