A thread on Hospital data from yesterday's @IndependentSage briefing.
Firstly, hospital admissions are coming down reflecting the falls in cases.
We have only just come below the first wave peak though so admission rates are still high. We clearly need further declines. 1/
It's a similar picture across England's regions with all regions admissions now falling. The regions which were placed into tier four first (London, South East, East) appear to have had their peaks in hospitalisation first as well, with other regions turning the corner later. 2/
Hospital occupancy is still high (higher than the first wave peak) but is coming down.
We will continue to see it fall in the coming weeks (reflecting falls in admissions and cases) but we need it to come way, way down.
Just focussing on admissions and occupancy masks a more troubling situation in the critical care units.
Here's a short thread which takes a bit of a closer look at what critical care bed occupancy really means.
Finally an update on the death data presented at Yesterday's @IndependentSage briefing.
Important to remember before we get mired in the numbers that each of these "data points" reflects a person with a family and friends who are mourning for a loved one. 1/4
Death by date reported (and by date of death) are now coming down. We are steering away from the horrifying highs of a couple of weeks ago, but we are still averaging around a thousand deaths a day which is unacceptably high. 2/4
Data from death certificates shows that this second wave has reached similar death rates (up to the week ending 22nd of January) to the first wave.
It's also been significantly broader meaning far more deaths in this second wave than the first. 3/4
Mini-thread:
When talking about hospital data (below), the big picture of overall COVID admissions and occupancy often mask the extremely serious situation in critical care units.
So here's a short look at critical care bed occupancy trends. 1/5
The percentage of critical care beds occupied in most English regions has decreased week on week (orange dots are week ending 31 Jan and grey dots the week before). But this percentage occupied figure masks the true picture... 2/5
If we look at the actual number of beds occupied we still see falls, but the numbers are way, way up on this time last year (grey diamonds).
London has around double the critical care beds occupied now compared to last year. 3/5
A few updates on cases and positivity from the @IndependentSage briefing yesterday.
Firstly cases. UK cases (by reporting date) continue to come down at a steady rate. The seven day average is back under 20,000.
Still high but a long way from where we were. 1/10
A similar picture across the four nations of the UK. Cases per 100K population all falling. Slightly more slow decline in Scotland, albeit from a lower level to begin with.
Case rates remain extremely high though.2/10
Adjusting for testing by calculating the positivity rate (positives divided by numbers of tests) shows a similar picture.
This is consistent with the ONS prevalence positivity rate which is also starting to show steeper decline. One person in 65 currently infected in England. 3/
A short thread on vaccination with data from Yesterday's @IndependentSage briefing:
We're starting to see a pattern with daily doses delivered rising towards the weekend then falling. Last Saturday we delivered over 600,000 doses. We are seeing week on week rises.👍
This shows the steady increase in the cumulative first doses delivered by nation. In total we've given over 10 million first doses (closer) to 11 million now. This is clearly fantastic news. Long may it continue.
This shows the daily numbers per 100,000 by each of the home nations. It's a bit messy but it shows that each of the nations are giving out vaccine doses at roughly comparable rates.
Interview just now with @skynewsSam on @SkyNews
First up, estimates of R are below one nationally, cases, hospital admissions and deaths are all coming down quickly, but not as quickly perhaps as in the first wave due to more transmissible new variant and looser restrictions.
On to vaccinations. We have given over 10 million first doses which is a huge achievement. Coverage in the over 80s is 88% and in 75-79 it is 83% which are both really good figures. We need to keep pushing to get those rate up and or ensure we have good rates in lower age groups.
Suggestions yesterday that the Oxford-AZ vaccine can help to reduce transmission, which if true is potentially game-changing. Rather than just protecting individuals if we can stop them spreading the disease then we can drive down cases even more quickly.
So last week I posted about this discrepancy between Public Health England's (gov.uk/government/sta…) positivity rates and those given on the covid dashboard (coronavirus.data.gov.uk).
PHE positivity rates seemed to be coming down much faster than COVID dashboard rates at both national and regional level, despite both PHE and the Dashboard purporting to use the same metric (PCR testing) to calculate positivity.
After lots of to-ing and fro-ing with PHE we managed to establish that PHE are now including Lateral flow tests in their positivity figures (despite what it said in the report).