Nerd trivia: The inauguration of Joe Biden means the beginning of the fifth period of time with 6 living Presidents. Four of the five periods have come since 1993:
1993-4: Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton
2001-4: Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II
2017-18: Carter, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, Trump
2021-: Carter, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, Trump, Biden

The earlier one was 1861-62: Van Buren, Tyler, Fillmore, Pierce, Buchanan, Lincoln.

There have never been seven Presidents alive at the same time
Another trivia 6 - there have been 6 Presidents who at one point in their lives were the only President alive:
Washington
Adams
Grant
T Roosevelt
Hoover
Nixon

Nixon is the only President who has been the only President alive and one of a set of 6 living Presidents
The rule of 6 also travels across the Atlantic - we are currently in the 11th period of history with 6 living British Prime Ministers. There have never been 6 PMs alive at the same time. Here are the groups of 6 in the last 100 years:
May-Oct 1923: Rosebury, Balfour, Asquith, Lloyd George, Law, Baldwin
1924-1928: Rosebury, Balfour, Asquith, Lloyd George, Baldwin, Macdonald
1964-65: Churchill, Eden, Attlee, Macmilland, Home, Wilson
1976-77: Eden, Macmillan, Home, Wilson, Heath, Callaghan
1979-86: Macmillan, Home, Wilson, Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher
1990-95: Home, Wilson, Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher, Major
2019-date: Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson
Combining this with the Presidents list I conclude we are now only the second period of history when there have been 6 Presidents alive and 6 PMs alive. The earlier one was in 1993-94.
There have been 4 PMs who were the only PM alive at some point in their lives. Three of them date from the earliest days of the office: Walpole, Pelham and Newcastle. The fourth is Gladstone - between 1881 and 1885, when Lord Salisbury took the job, he was the only PM living.
Given the respective age distributions of the two groups, I think the chances of Britain getting to 7 PMs alive at once for the first time ever in coming years are better than the US's chances of having 7 living Presidents
The oldest of Britain's former PMs is John Major, still only 77 and thus younger than the currently serving US President Joe Biden (78)!

Carter is now 96, and Clinton, Bush II and Trump are all in their 70s
Not too late for a Sir John Major "centrist grandad" comeback?

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More from @robfordmancs

7 Feb
So, one more set of thoughts on Labour and patriotism. Last one for now, I promise. I think there are some interesting underlying similarities between Labour's patriotism headache and the Conservatives' traditional NHS headache
In both cases you have an issue where (1) A consensus "this is a good thing" view is held by lopsided majority of the country (2) A substantial & vocal group of activists within the party dissents from this view (3) (partly because of this) the party is less trusted on the issue
For example, with the Tories on the NHS. Since the foundation of the NHS, voters have suspected that the Tories cannot "be trusted" with it. That they secretly dislike it. That, given the chance, they would privatise it. Etc, etc. Lab campaigns always play on this.
Read 19 tweets
4 Feb
Three problems with Richard Burgon's contribution to the whole patriotism/flags debate - which was (1) voters who like flags and patriotism have their own party - the Conservative party (2) chasing them means taking young and BAME voters for granted
1. People who like flags and patriotism is "most people" (see Sunder Katwala's thread for evidence). So the argument amounts to "Labour should reject what most people think on this, and actively encourage them to vote Conservative if this is something that is important to them."
2. The "most people" who like flags in patriotism includes, actually, most young people and BAME voters. So if your concern is not to take such voters for granted - i.e. seeking to reflect their views not ignore them - then rejecting flags & patriotism is the wrong approach
Read 8 tweets
31 Jan
I've been very positive about the UK's vaccine rollout, which has been outstanding.
But the successes this month only serve to throw into sharper relief the failures of last month, when a spineless got delated (again) taking the steps needed to avert catastrophe
The rolling 7 day average of cases in the UK has been halving about every two weeks since the peaked a few days after we, finally and belatedly, locked down in full on 5th January.

How many cases could have been averted if we had instead have locked down on 15th December?
Cases then, per @ganeshran , were running at average of 20k per day. Assuming same 2 week halving, we would have had:
10k per day around 29th Dec
5k per day around 12th Jan
2.5k per day around 26th Jan
Read 11 tweets
29 Jan
Universe brain incompetence right here
So today in EU vaccine response:
President of the most vaccine sceptical large member state cast doubt on vaccine approved by EU authorities.

Then EU accidentally publishes confidential contract with the vaccine maker potentially voiding the contract
Read 4 tweets
18 Jan
Excellent analysis as per usual from Stephen. One idea he raises here which I think is really worth pondering is that welfare cuts for 2020s Cons could become like immigration for 2000s/2010s Labour: an issue they can neither dismiss, tackle or find a way to avoid"
And for symmetrical reasons. For Labour, immigration controls were a policy the voters they were targeting strongly favoured, but that their MPs, activists and media supporters loathed.
Big welfare increases are like that for Cons now - the voters they've targeted and successfully won over in the "red wall" etc favour a stronger safety net. But many MPs, traditional activists, and Con media hate the idea.
Read 6 tweets
16 Jan
Netscape Navigator and AOL chat rooms. And MiniDisc.
Also the NeoGeo - a console of the same era as the Megadrive and SNES but twice as powerful but ten times as expensive. The games looked as good as the arcade games of the time but cost the equivalent of like £200 each in today’s money
I used to go to the local video game store just to gawk at the NeoGeo demo cabinet
Read 5 tweets

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