0/ Last week when the $DOGE pump happened I was wondering who were the TikTokers who participated in it.
Today I had two friends and their families over for BBQ. They have kids under 21 and the kids all took part in the $DOGE pump, so it was a global phenomenon.
1/ The kids had no idea what $DOGE was. They just heard everyone talk about it on TikTok and joined the party. Both kids even pitched their parents on $DOGE as an investment idea.
2/ Surprisingly my friends (who have not invested in crypto) were supportive of their kids putting money into $DOGE even though they had no idea what it was, figuring this was a good way for the kids to develop an interest in investing. One even opened a Binance account to trade.
3/ Both kids lost money in the end when $DOGE crashed back down, but hopefully these kids retain their interest in crypto. Maybe this will motivate them to do their own research next time and hopefully they invest in something that makes money.
4/ While it may seem frivolous $DOGE might actually be the way many teenagers and young adults find their way into crypto.
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0/ I don’t know who Chef Nomi is and frankly I don’t really care to know. But it is one thing to criticize his actions and another to speculate on his identity and doxx someone you think fits his profile without concrete evidence.
1/ Whoever started this, you fucking crossed the line. If you cannot prove Sorawit is Chef Nomi, you better damn well make him a public apology. This is a real person we are talking about. Someone with friends and family and a career.
2/ What gives you the damn right to soil his reputation like this? Sorawit reacted rather graciously despite the abuse. If it was me, I would have rained hellfire on you by now.
0/ I decided to do a tweet storm about DCF models and their usefulness re crypto assets for those valuation diehards out there.
1/ I have come across some analysts who mistakenly equate building a DCF model with doing fundamental valuation analysis. Most of these analysts don’t understand the shortcomings of DCF and naively think it is a robust predictor of price.
2/ Just because a company or platform has cashflow doesn’t mean a DCF model is the best way to value it. Often for startups in high growth phase, a DCF analysis leads to a very wrong outcome and more often than not ends up undervaluing an asset.
1) in every innovation cycle there is bound to be a major bubble. This happens in the stock market and also in crypto. Why? Because these innovation cycles represent a breakthrough and it gets people excited which unleashes animal spirits and greed.
2) In crypto, we saw this in 2012-13, 2016-17 and it is happening again. Are bubbles bad? Not necessarily. It creates incentives and draws in talent to innovate. It also generates the capital to enable these innovations.
0/ I have lost count of how many $YFI clones have blown up. Many are probably wondering why they couldn't replicate the $YFI magic when it looked so easy for $YFI. The factors I attribute $YFI's early success to are 1) differentiation; 2) founder; 3) community and 4) investors.
1/ When $YFI first emerged, it was the first fair-mined DeFi coin which offered a crazy high yield (~1000%). This was unprecedented at the time. Subsequent iterations of $YFI didn't offer any real differentiation, and the fact so many sprang up was dilutive to all but the first.
2/ When I look at an early stage investment, I focus alot on the founder's track record and motivation. Andre Conje is a known name in crypto harking back to the 2017 ICO boom when he did countless code reviews for the benefit of the community for no financial benefit.
0/ The market has changed in the last 48 hrs and we are now entering into the second half of this 3 year bull market which started in Jan 2019. There is new capital flowing into crypto probably enticed by the massive rally in DeFi tokens over the last few months.
1/ As new capital comes in, they go into the safer and more liquid large caps like $BTC, $ETH and $XRP first. When was the large time $XRP was up 20% in a day?
2/ As the large caps rip, legacy capital will be forced to rotate some capital back into liquid large caps, driving them up further. This will come at the expense of the small and mid caps. There will be a penalty for illiquidity short term.