Little thread on the Hiding Game and $rook. Thanks to @APETOGETHER for his help, and @CryptoMessiah too.

This address tracks the daily activity of the main keeper bot. The balance is moved about 100 blocks after each daily epoch, giving us a baseline.

app.zerion.io/0x3d71d79c2249… Image
@APETOGETHER @CryptoMessiah Those withdrawals go to the treasury.

We can calc daily Keeper arb profits with napkin math by taking post withdrawal balance ($230k yesterday) to the balance right before new withdrawal.

This tells us the rook rewarded for giving arbs to the bot.

app.zerion.io/0x9a67f1940164…
I think ~762 rook are paid to traders who offer limit orders to the KeeperDao dex.

So far today, Keeperbot has earned $382k in profits arbing.

If arb bot stops making money now, the average "price" of the rook rewards to traders to break even is ~$500.
There is no guarantee rook rewards should outpace what is "lost" in the limit order (profit captured by KeeperDao), but it does help establish a valuation metric.

tl;dr the KeeperDAO keeper is printing profits. The "cost basis" of those rook is quite high today.
Now imagine if larger DEXs or aggregators decide to wrap their limit orders into the KeeperDAO hiding game? Captured MEV will skyrocket and the "cost" of those rook reward would super moon.

Also, I tested this all day yesterday, and all my limit orders were hitting. It works.
The dex interface stinks still, but it's already improving quickly. The underlying order/arb execution is quite nice, however. Rockier launch than hoped, but I anticipate DEXs and aggregators that need reliable limit executions as table stakes are going to consider KeeperDAO.
You can learn more about the Hiding Game here.

/fin

medium.com/keeperdao/let-…

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More from @ledgerstatus

9 Feb
My “degen” IRA hit a mini milestone today. It started with a humble balance & the intention to trade actively. Active trade I did. Started in late 2018, today it hit an ~8x. But a 20x+ off its lows. I have a few potentially interesting takeaways from this experiment I’ll share.
It’s worth starting by saying this was generally full of lessons in “how not to do it”. However, aggression was my strategy at the outset. I haven’t run traditional metrics like Sharpe at it yet, but they’d be terrible. I experienced several 50% drawdowns. One 75%+ drawdown.
Every drawdown of size was created by allocating too high a % of my portfolio to highly correlated options strategies. Once I put a roughly 20% portfolio cap toward long premium, performance increased massively.
Read 14 tweets
12 Jan
Longing unused layer 1s is laudable but wrong.

ETH is the network that matters. ETH is used. Defi is the sector with rapid development, real world use case, massive $$$, and momentum.

Long ETH and Defi, forsake nearly all other alts. They are laggards.
The very few worth dabbling for swings would be Solana, BSC, Polkadot. I can’t think of many others. Because these are also going after Defi and arent legacy chains pivoting. They bring challenge to ETH and that could be fun.
Some to avoid? Eos, ada, ltc, bch, xrp, trx... and so on. Stay away. They will forsake you.

The Flippening of the top 20 is upon us.
Read 7 tweets
11 Jan
This is your chance to be a legend.
However in dollar terms it's up $22 since this so there's that.
+35% since. Are you a legend yet?
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
Yes, @Keeper_DAO raised “seven figures” from two investors. @polychaincap has 100k rook and 3AC has 20k rook.

The team is a partnership including Ren founders.

Announcements are radio silent right now. None are in promo mode. Which makes it accumulation central.
When the arb mining process is finished this month, you’ll probably start getting a lot of announcements for product launches, exchange listings, partnerships. You definitely want to make sure you wait until after all that to accumulate. Makes total sense.
“Wow ledger how much you gonna shill this?”

What is nicer? That I shill it on a 25% up day or after I’ve 5x’d or a day where it’s down 15% against ETH?

I have bought every price between $67 and $195. If you make me, I’ll keep buying. It’s your move.
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov 20
If you consider a 30% tax rate, selling a bitcoin at $15k to chase an altcoin, if your last tx on that btc was at $10k, you have a $5k profit and roughly $1500 tax burden.

You’ll realize it either way at some point, but my calculus is if it’s worth it before Dec 31 or not.
If you underperform btc you needlessly speed up the time you owe the tax man by a year. If you overperform, you need to make at least 10% (1500/15000) before it makes sense.

It’s really hard but I’m waiting for a fat pitch. Today looks good but not worth it yet for me.
Meanwhile, if btc continues upward, each btc becomes much stronger buying power for paying 2020 cap gains that occurred pre-$10k btc. Reducing the % of portfolio I have to take out in January to pay them.
Read 7 tweets
4 Nov 20
The GOP will soon dump Donald Trump and ask you all to accept that they only did what they had to do to stop Democrats. That they can now carry on with conservative principles.

They are spineless cowards. They are finished.
There are no real conservatives in government. There are establishment Republicans with endless power thirst, and populist Republicans who will follow the Trump line.

But there are almost no fiscal conservatives in favor of limited government. It's a sham.
However, the narrative will now shift to the need for fiscal conservatism. It is all a lie. A complete sham. If you're a fiscal conservative, Bitcoin is a much better answer than Republican government.
Read 4 tweets

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